COMMENTARY 6/20/17

CORN

DOWN  5

Rains relieve crop stress.  Crop Conditions yesterday were just a point below trade expectations. The excellent category was up 2 while the “Good” category was down 2.  A reason to be bullish??  –> A look at a 30 day moisture graph shows MOST of the Corn Belt in the Very Short rating.  A comparison of soil moisture maps now in 2017 compared to 2012 is SPOOKILY similar.  We have said graphs here at the office if you would like to view!  It is certainly something to think about.

 

Planting Progress:

US YC EMERGED:   98%TW,  94% LW, 959 LY, and 98% AVG

IL YC EMERGED:   100% TW, 96% LW, 100% LY, and 99% AVG

US CONDITIONS:  67% G/E,  67% LW, and 75% LY

IL CONDITIONS: 59% G/E, 58% LW

BEANS

DOWN 10

The weather in the Midwest is non-threatening for the next week and great for plant development.  Yesterday’s Crop Progress showed improvement of 1% at 67% G/E with the Trade expecting 1-2% increase.  Producers in Argentina are 22% lower than this time last year from 22 mill tons to 7 mill.  Harvest is all but complete and low prices still have them holding on tight.  As said yest, if Chinese demand appears due to improved margins it may be up to the good ol US to step in and supply the beans!

Crop Progress:

US YSB PLANTED: 96% TW, 92% LW, 95% LY, and 93% AVG

IL YSB PLANTED:    97% TW, 93% LW, 95% LY, and 94% AVG

US YSB EMERGED:   89%TW,  77% LW,  88% LY, and 84% AVG

IL YSB EMERGED:   92% TW, 78% LW, 87% LY, and 87% AVG

US CONDITIONS:  67% G/E,  66% LW, and 73% LY

IL CONDITIONS: 67% G/E, 66% LW

WHEAT

UP 5

Ratings slipped more than the market was expecting yesterday. The 11-15 day forecast has a chance for some areas to get rain but even more is required.  Locally it looks like it is time for the last 10% of wheat harvest to commence.  Wet samples have been coming in this afternoon but it DOES look evident that some of it SHOULD have been cut prior to recent rains as some TW’s are slipping below 58.

 

Progress:

SPRING WHEAT CONDITIONS:    43 G/E% TW, 45% LW, 76% LY

US WINTER WHEAT HEADED:   97% TW, 92% LW, 99% LY, and 95% AVG

IL WINTER WHEAT HEADED:    100% TW, 100% LW, 100% LY, and 100% AVG

US G/E CONDITIONS: 49% G/E, 50% LW, and 61% LY

IL WHEAT CONDITIONS: 64% G/E, 64% LW – a 0% increase

US WINTER WHEAT HARVESTED:   28% TW, 17% LW, 23% LY, and 25% AVG

IL WINTER WHEAT HARVESTED:    65% TW, 24% LW, 33% LY, and 24% AVG