COMMENTARY 6/20/14

WE STRONGLY RECOMMEND that producers verify that their seed varieties ARE approved for MAJOR EXPORT MARKETS.  The STL River markets ARE planning to test loads delivered.  They RESERVE the right to reject loads with unapproved traits.  If you have seed that is NOT APPROVED FOR MAJOR EXPORT MARKETS, we encourage you to check with your seed representative to see that it IS APPROVED for GLOBAL USE.

BUNGE will not accept delivery of produced from the following seed:

CORN: Agrisure Viptera MIR 162 (Syngenta), Bayer/Genective -Event VCO-01981-5, Agrisure Duracade – Event 5307 (Syngenta), Stine Maize – Event HCEM485, DuPont/Pioneer – Event 4114-3, Monsanto – MON 87427

SOYBEAN: Vistive Gold – MON 87705 (Monsanto), Soymega – MON 87769 (Monsanto), Plenish (DuPont/Pioneer), Bayer – Event FG72

 WHAT YOU SHOULD KNOW: 

China’s rejections of a banned variety of genetically modified U.S. corn have now cost the U.S. agriculture industry up to $2.9 billion, a grain group said, on losses from trade disruptions. The National Grain and Feed Association (NGFA) estimated in a report, that rejections of shipments containing Syngenta AG’s Agrisure Viptera corn resulted in losses of at least $1 billion.  This is based on economic analysis that included data supplied by top global grain exporters. The largest estimates of losses are based on the loss in corn price, which  translated to producer losses. – JSA

 SPECIALTY CORN GROWERS:

Ask your seed company what/how they are testing the NGMO purity on the seed you planted.  Ensure what they sold you IS pure (by lab testing your seed) BEFORE planting .  There are contaminated seed issues out there.

 

COMMENTARY

CORN                      

Up 3

St Louis river levels rising  at +18.4 ft today and forecast to be 20.6 by 6/25.  Flooding and high water in Iowa means likely less loading for corn barges.  That means more demand for STL barges that are 3 days CLOSER to the Gulf for off loading onto export vessels.

FUND BUYING.  Funds bot some 15 million corn today.  Funds are still LONG some 771 mill bu of corn.   Corn condition is the 5th BEST since 1986!  Export Sales were light at 4.3 mill vs expectations of 12 – 20.  Thunderstorms  continue into Monday-Tuesday, but shy away from wettest corn and soybeans in the northwest.  Several days of cooler and drier weather should follow, although showers in the southwest will hamper wheat harvesting.  A warmer pattern begins next weekend and continues into July.  This will be instrumental in igniting multiple t-storm clusters, limiting the duration of any heat and keeping crops moist.  Key points:  (1) scattered storms affect much of the Corn Belt/Plains through Sun; (2) heavy rain affects central / southern Plains and SE two-thirds of the Corn Belt Mon.-Tue; (3) will be followed by a few days of seasonable to cool/dry weather.

Monday’s  Nationwide Crop Rating  received a 76% G/E vs 765% LW and 64% LY.  Take note that which has only been surpassed five times since record keeping began in 1986.

The State of IL was rated at 76% G/E vs 74% LW.    US EMERGENCE was 97% THIS WEEK, 92% LW, 91% LY, and 96% AVG.  Emergence for the State of IL was 100% THIS WEEK, 97% LW, 93% LY, and 96% AVG.

 

BEANS

OLD DOWN 5      NEW UP 4

Best crop ratings since 1986!  Funds are still LONG some 395 mill bu of YSB.    Monday’s Export Inspections were better than expected at 7.9 to the usual destinations of Japan, Mexico, and Indonesia.  The Argentina crop is 92% complete vs being completed LY.  Cordonnier maintains that the US yield est may need to be raised from 44.5 up 1/2bu to 45 bpa.

US Planting Progress is 92% THIS WEEK, 87%LW, 83% LY, and 90% AVG.  Planting progress for The State of IL was 94% THIS WEEK, 92% LW, 86% LY, and 89% AVG.  US EMERGENCE was 83% THIS WEEK, 71% LW, 63% LY, and 77% AVG.  Emergence for the State of IL was 89% THIS WEEK, 80% LW, 64% LY, and 75% AVG.  US CROP CONDITIONS are 73 % G/E, and 64%LY. The State of IL was 72% G/E THIS WEEK and 76%LW.

 

WHEAT

DOWN 8

Ample global supplies  and smaller world demand is more than enough to offset our US crop issues.  A drier forecast for wheat harvest lent pressure.  Funds are NOW SHORT some -130 million bu of wheat. Fungal issues popping up in the Plains and Southern IL.  Drier, cooler weather in store for NEXT week.  That should give us a chance to get wheat cut BEFORE quality deteriorates any further.  Scattered storms THIS week in the Plains will NOT help quality concerns.  Quality concerns here are on the mind for the wheat locally.  Wheat moistures appear to be drier than expected initially, although the straw is still tough and green.  Some low levels of Vomitoxin are being seen to the West of our draw area but TW are 58 – 60 to start with.  Harvest creeps forward and additional rain will deteriorate the TW and quality once ripe.  Initial scouting showed no signs of scab damage, but recent scouts ARE showing evidence of fungal activity from the cool wet conditions we’ve had since flowering.  Some significant amounts of damage are now being seen, especially in extreme Southern IL.  Next week will be detrimental if the conditions stay right for fungal activity, creating scab and shrinking wheat berries.

  Winter Wheat headed is 92%THIS WEEK, 86% LW, 88% LY, and 90% AVG.  Winter Wheat conditions are  30% G/E THIS WEEK, 30% LW, and 31% LY.  Conditions for the State of IL are 59% G/E THIS WEEK and 66% LW.  KS G/E is a mere 11%, OK G/E is only 5%, and TX G/E is 15%.