COMMENTARY 6/19/17

CORN

DOWN  9

Weekend rain was as expected and coverage on the Corn Belt. The next forecast shows chances for rain largely dependent on the path of the tropical system building in the Gulf.  Rain is still needed in many areas like N IL and IA.  Cooler temps this weekend and then warmer next week.  Crop conditions out today, see actuals below.  The biggest improvements were SD and MO up 4%, MN, ND, TN up 3%, OH, WI,IA,IL,IN up 1%. Export Inspections were beefy at 48 mill vs expectations of 35-43.

Planting Progress:

US YC EMERGED:   98%TW,  94% LW, 959 LY, and 98% AVG

IL YC EMERGED:   100% TW, 96% LW, 100% LY, and 99% AVG

US CONDITIONS:  67% G/E,  67% LW, and 75% LY

IL CONDITIONS: 59% G/E, 58% LW

BEANS

DOWN 1

A two sided trading session.  Funds sold 3,000 contracts of beans and soyoil. Weekly Inspections  were so-so at 10.1 mill bu vs expectations of 7-16. This is down nearly 9 mill bu from last week.  Crop ratings increased.  See actuals below.  Chinese crush margins were up quite a bit to start the week pulling a few processors back into the black. The SA farmer is still a tight holders of old crop beans, which means if Chinese demand resurfaces due to improved margins it may put more pressure (that’s GOOD pressure!) on the US to fill in.

Planting Progress:

US YSB PLANTED: 96% TW, 92% LW, 95% LY, and 93% AVG

IL YSB PLANTED:    97% TW, 93% LW, 95% LY, and 94% AVG

US YSB EMERGED:   89%TW,  77% LW,  88% LY, and 84% AVG

IL YSB EMERGED:   92% TW, 78% LW, 87% LY, and 87% AVG

US CONDITIONS:  67% G/E,  66% LW, and 73% LY

IL CONDITIONS: 67% G/E, 66% LW

WHEAT

UP 2

The leader today!  Dry weather is concerning here in the US HRW/HRS and Canadian Prairies and around the world. Now seeing critical dryness in Europe. We may see reductions in their crop in upcoming reports if it continues. Australia too is planting wheat in dry conditions. Winter wheat conditions were steady. CO saw the largest drop, down 7% to 41%. Michigan saw the largest improvement, up 7% to 74% G/E.

Progress:

SPRING WHEAT CONDITIONS:    43 G/E% TW, 45% LW, 76% LY

US WINTER WHEAT HEADED:   97% TW, 92% LW, 99% LY, and 95% AVG

IL WINTER WHEAT HEADED:    100% TW, 100% LW, 100% LY, and 100% AVG

US G/E CONDITIONS: 49% G/E, 50% LW, and 61% LY

IL WHEAT CONDITIONS: 64% G/E, 64% LW – a 0% increase

US WINTER WHEAT HARVESTED:   28% TW, 17% LW, 23% LY, and 25% AVG

IL WINTER WHEAT HARVESTED:    65% TW, 24% LW, 33% LY, and 24% AVG