COMMENTARY 6/14/18

Several days of heat begins…..NOW -and over the next 4 – 5 days.  Mainly dry weather is FORECAST to go with it, BUT looking at the radar says something else. IA got wide coverage this am, and now a separate batch is headed our wat from up by Peoria.  S Dakota should see some rain over the weekend as the remains of Hurricane Bud continues his way inland.  There is a HIGH level of uncertainty for the 21-28st with a tendency (it’s thought now) to be hotter and drier.  Our srw has a few more headed to the field to cut samples and NOT seeing anything particularly good about the early varieties.  We are starting to see TW as low as 53 and still carrying a bit of moist.  These are going to be good drying days ahead (barring that rain on the radar) so that which is in the field may go from too wet to too dry really fast.  As usual, cut it as wet as you can while still maintaining quality.  <- This may be GREAT advice again this year!

 

CORN

DOWN 13

Brutal!  Surprise un-forcasted rain last night and into this am in IA and rain makes grain.  Seems like our forecasters MUST be getting their info from CNN (fake news) . Trade worries reared its ugly head again. as tomorrow is the date we are supposed to find out what sort of trade tariffs the US is going to place on some 900 Chinese imports. Export sales, though good were promptly forgotten.  Old crop was above range at 36.9 vs expectations of 24-35 mill with 7.2 per week needed.  S Korea was the BIG buyer taking 15.8 and Taiwan, Japan, and Indonesia did 3-5 mill each as well!  New crop was near the low end at 9.5 vs expectations of 8-16.  Celeres lowered  their Brazil crop from 91.6 to 85.1 due to late planting delays and dry weather.  The safrinha crop accounted for THE ENTIRE decline, down to 57.4 from 63.9.  In S Russia and Ukraine, above normal temps and below normal accums are expected the next two weeks.

 

BEANS              

DOWN 9

Tariffs talk here too, but WERE supported by good old crop sales….but China still staying HIDDEN in the weeds.  Great and ABOVE expectations were sales at 19.1mill vs thoughts of only 4 – 15.  Big buyers were Egypt, Indonesia, Portugal, and unknown.  SEE??  Other countries DO want US beans!  China is the big unknown and to whether we reach the USDA’s 2.065 bill bu est for the year.  Meal Sales weren’t that robust at 75k MT vs expectations of 50 -250k MT.  NOPA Crush for May will be out tomorrow. Thoughts are 161-162 and compares to 161.0 last month and 149.2 last year.  Stocks are thought to increase 60 mill from 2.150.

 

WHEAT

DOWN 15

World weather issues DO still persist.  Must be a LOT of fund money moving around.  Export Sales were decent -at 11.1 vs expectations of 6 – 17 and 15 needed per week from here on out.  Strategie lowered their est for the EU’s soft wheat by 900 K MT, from 140.8 down to 139.9 MMT.  (That’s a 1% decline from last year.)