COMMENTARY 6/13/18

Hot and mostly dry for the next several days.  Heat is then expected to slowly break once we get into next week.  GREAT weather for srw harvest to get rolling.  Starting to see some initial TW issues, but it is still VERY early!

 

CORN

DOWN 1

Funds turned sellers again, likely from the uncertainty of China/US tariff issues that are expected to be apply Fri and into next week. Forecast-wise the weather looks non-threatening for the rest of the month and the last week actually looks as wet as some 3-5″ possible for a large area of the corn belt.  Yield est thoughts are currently between 171 – 178bpa.  The weather and the Whitehouse will determine our next moves.  Which one is a better bet?

 

BEANS              

 

DOWN 18

Down yet again for the eighth day in a row!  Beans have now eroded 11% in the last twelve days.  China concerns are in the forefront of the mind.  Lots of Fund selling and long liquidation seen again as speculators lay off risk.  There was a sale announced this am of 177K MT’s to unknown. The good news about the recent board drop is that this SHOULD provide an EXCELLENT opportunity for China to come to the US for beans if an all out trade war is avoidable.  Informa did increase their Jun acreage est to 89.9 mill. That’s 490k above their previous est and 920k above the USDA’s Mar est, yet STILL 1.2 mill BELOW last year.  Fri’s NOPA May Crush est has the trade looking for 162 mill bu compared to 149.2 last year. Keep an eye on the hot weather forecast for the balance of the week and into the weekend.

 

 

WHEAT

DOWN 18

We gave back everything we gained yest.  Was that rally just too much?   The weather patterns continue to be unfavorable, the dryness in Australia and in the Black Sea region.  Parts of the Ukraine are seeing some rain but Russia is still dry. There is lots of talk that Russia’s crop will continue to shrink from 68.5 MMT.