COMMENTARY 6/1/18

A cold front initiates a good chance for rain now through the weekend followed by 3-5 days of cooling, then?  HOT. A lack of humid/tropical air LOOKs likely to limit rainfall.  Stay tuned!

CORN

DOWN 3

Forecast models are calling for 3/4″ to 1.5″ of accum next week for a significant portion of the Corn Belt.  Export Sales WERE quite solid this am at 39.1 vs expectations of 28-39 and only 8.6 needed per week. New crop was slightly under the 6- 14 expectations at 5.9 mill bu. Big buyers were Mexico, Japan and Spain. 17/18 U.S. exports SHOULD now be flirting with 2.3 bill bu!  The proposed import tax by the EU of 25% on US corn is back on the table after the US announced plans to tax steel imports and discourage imports of of their products.  Their imports of our corn is NOT significant.

Now, a word on tariffs:  Excessive imports due to global oversupply threatens to impair national security, (the Commerce Department reported back in Jan), because -> Closures of domestic production result in situations where the US would be unable to meet demand for national defense and critical infrastructure in a national emergency.  Yesterday, President Trump announced steel and aluminum tariffs for Canada, Mexico, and the EU (Spain) after months of discussions on US national security issues that originate from global oversupply. This implementation follows the President’s Mar 8 announcement of a 25% tariff on steel imports and a 10% tariff on aluminum imports.  Recently, in Mar, the President welcomed any countries that share a security relationship with the US to discuss alternatives to this global oversupply problem.  Our US officials DID reach agreements on steel with S Korea, Australia, Argentina, and Brazil AND agreements on aluminum with Australia and Argentina. We were UNABLE to reach satisfactory agreements with Canada, Mexico, and the EU.

Bloomberg Trader Bias:  Bullish  17% TW (40% LW), Bearish 36% TW (56% LW), Neutral 28% TW (30% LW)

 

BEANS              

UP 3

Rain and thoughts of some potentially high crop ratings on Mon caused some weakness initially this am.  The USDA released their April Crush this am as expected at 171.6 mill bu.  Last yr was 149.7.  Export Sales were just below the low end of expectations at 10 mill vs expectations of 11-22 and only 2.6 needed.  Big buyers were Japan, Meico, and the EU.  Don’t feel so sad! New crop was HEFTY at 28.4 vs expectations of 13 – 28 mill.  Big buyers here were China and Unknown. Keep in mind, China IS going to need beans.  This is especially likely as we transition from old into new crop.  Meal Sales came in at 141 K vs expectations of 100-400 and only 34 needed per week.  Bean Oil was short at 6 K vs expectations of 8-30 K.  In SA, the BA Exchange says Argentina is 90% complete and their Prod est is unchanged at 36.0.

Bloomberg Trader Bias:  Bullish 22% TW (45% LW), Bearish 50% TW ( 35% LW), Neutral 28% TW (20% LW)

 

WHEAT

DOWN 3

Weather improves and demand is still a stinker. Talk of Black Sea precip forecasts and US yield potential were in the spotlight.  Export Sales were stinky with old crop at only 1.1 vs expectations of -4 to +4.  New crop was 10.0 vs 6-17 expected.  Crop Conditions will be out Mon.  Harvest activity SHOULD be picking up in OK over the weekend and move into KS  late next week.  Too early to draw much conclusions yet BUT yield/quality is indicating  better yield and proteins. France’s soft wheat is rated 80% G/E, up one from last week.  BA Exchange says Argentina is 8% planted with acres expected to be up 7% to 6.2 mill hect.

Bloomberg Trader Bias:  Bullish 18% TW (35% LW), Bearish 53% TW (35% LW), Neutral 29% TW (30% LW)