COMMENTARY 6/11/18

 Scattered showers are should continue for IN, IL, IA, and the Corn Belt and N Plains through tomorrow then several days of dry, hot weather flex their muscles later this week and then more chances for additional showers are possible. Market believes that widespread dry is unlikely as we get into late month.  Wheat samples ARE coming in today and dryer than anticipated at 12.6 – 13.8% with 58 + TW’s.  Best to get it cut BEFORE the forecasted rains have an opportunity to degrade the quality!

CORN

DOWN 10

Good, widespread rain over the weekend and global trade concern issues.  Export Inspections were mid-range at 55.5 vs expectations of 40-67 and 51 needed per week.  Big buyers were SE Asia, the Middle East, Mexico and other folks in the N Hemisphere.  Today’s crop rating ARE better than were expected!  See actuals below.  Eyes are on Brazil where sales of state inventories amid higher truck transportation costs have raised concerns it’s too expensive to move corn around to the country or to ports. Some speculate corn purchased from Brazil MIGHT switch to the US and/or Argentina.  Tomorrow, the Trade is expecting to see 17/18 c/o 18 mill bu lower at 2.164 in a range of 2.125-2.208.  The 18/19 c/o is thought to be 30 mill bu lower at 1.652 in a range of 1.425-1.851.  The SA crop est look for Argentina down ½ MMT to 32.5 in a range  of 31.0-33.0. Brazil 2.9 MMT lower at 84.1in a range of 78.4-87.0.  CONAB will also be out tomorrow with the crop expected at at 82.8, down from 87.7 back in May.

Crop Progress:

US YC EMERGED:   94% TW,  86% LW, 893 LY, and 92% AVG

IL YC EMERGED:   95% TW,  91% LW, 95% LY, and 95% AVG

US YC CONDITIONS:  77% G/E, 78% LW, and 67% LY

IL YC CONDITIONS:    82% G/E,   81% LW,  58% LY

BEANS              

DOWN 15

Too much good weather “pressure” despite decent inspections. Funds selling was notable! Export Inspections were VERY decent at 23.7 vs expectations of 14.7-25.7 with 27 needed per week.  China took 4.6, compared to last week’s 4.9 mill bu.  Big buyers were SE Asia, the Middle East and the W Hemisphere.  Crop ratings were significantly BETTER than expected as was the % planted.  See actuals below.  Tomorrow, the trade is expecting the 17/18 c/o to drop 6 mill to 524 in a range of 473-566 and 18/19 c/o increase 25 mill at 440 in a 395-702 range.  The SA crop is expected to show the Argentine crop drop 1.2 MMT to 37.8 and Brazil’s increase by 0.3 MMT to 117.3.  CONAB too will be outlooking for Production to be 118.3 in a 117.1-119.2 range, up from 117 on the last report.

 Crop Progress:
US YSB PLANTED:   93% TW,  87% LW, 91% LY, and 85% AVG

IL YSB PLANTED:   96% TW,  94% LW, 92% LY, and 85% AVG

US YSB EMERGED:   83% TW,  468% LW, 74% LY, and 69% AVG

IL YSB EMERGED:   90% TW,  85% LW, 76% LY, and 72% AVG

US YC CONDITIONS:  73% G/E, 75% LW, and 66% LY

IL YC CONDITIONS:    83% G/E,   78% LW,  and 66% LY

 

WHEAT

DOWN 5

Weakness in the row crops and last week’s Black Sea exports were 35% MORE than the US, however, production concerns carrying over from last week limited losses. Australian rain forecasts have increased slightly for the drier West. Export Inspections were towards the low end at 13.6 vs expectations of 11.0-16.5.  Conditions were a bit of a mixed bag but MOSTLY better than expected.  Tomorrow, the 17/18 c/o is expected to increase 9 mill to 1.079 bill bu (compares to the USDA last month at 1,070).  The 18/19 c/o are expected to be 2 mill higher at 957 in a 820-994 range.

 

Crop Progress:

US WINTER WHEAT CONDITIONS:   38% G/E TW,  37% LW, and 50% LY

IL WINTER WHEAT CONDITIONS:    71% G/E TW,  62% LW, and 64% LY

US WINTER WHEAT HEADED:     91% TW,  83% LW, 91% LY, and 90% AVG

IL WINTER WHEAT HEADED:    100% TW,  98% LW, 100% LY, and 98% AVG

US WINTER HARVESTED:     14% TW, 5% LW, 16% LY, and 10% AVG

IL WINTER HARVESTED:     1% TW, 0% LW, 21% LY, and 4% AVG

US SPRING WHEAT PLANTED:   97% TW, 91% LW, 99% LY, and 94% AVG

US SPRING WHEAT EMERGED:   94% TW, 81% LW, 94% LY, and 89% AVG

SPRING WHEAT CONDITIONS:   70%G/E TW, 70% LW, and 45% LY