COMMENTARY 5/9/18

 Overnight forecasts seem to move more to the N.  Let the fieldwork resume!  The US is looking at below normal temps in the N and mild temps in the S. This should encourage the formation of showers for the N from SD to NE.  Next week we have another shot at a bigger system which is expected to cover the S, including the Plains, but missing the Delta.  Planting IS advancing fast! (just not in the N)  Heavy rain/flooding for areas in Argentina and just a few showers affect Brazil’s S.

CORN

UNCHANGED

Quiet as we wait for tomorrow’s report.  Quik-ship premiums have caused a surge in nearby freight. The Mid Miss still has some areas closed/struggling from high water. The Quad cities region is likely to close for 4-5 days tomorrow into Fri due to high water. Export Sales are also due out tomorrow in the 28 -39 mill bu range with 12.1 needed.  Again, the Supply/Demand report is thought to have 17/8 carry out at 2.176 bill bu in a  2.101-2.227 range  with the (April’s  was 2.182) and the 18/19 expected to be 1.631 in a 1.411-1.907 range.  S/D to come put at 11am.

 

LAST Mon’s Planting Progress:

US YC PLANTED:   39% TW,  17% LW, 345 LY, and 44% AVG

IL YC PLANTED:   74% TW,  32% LW, 65% LY, and 56% AVG

US YC EMERGED:   8% TW,  3% LW, 14% LY, and 14% AVG

IL YC EMERGED:   14% TW,  0% LW, 28% LY, and 22% AVG

BEANS              

DOWN 4

Weak due to more weakness in the Brazilian Real.  Export Sales are thought to be 11 – 22 mill with only 2.1 needed per week from here on out.  Will see how China feels!  Tomorrow’s S/D carry out for 17/18 est at 546 mill in a 495-618 range. The 18/19 Carry out est to be 533 in a 342-744 mill range.  LOTS of beans going into the ground whether people are done with corn or not.  Should be some BIG progress made by this coming Mon!

 

LAST Mon Planting Progress:

US YSB PLANTED:   15% TW,  5% LW, 13% LY, and 13% AVG

IL YSB PLANTED:   29% TW,  7% LW, 14% LY, and 12% AVG

 

WHEAT

DOWN 4

Weather was likely for today’s weakness.  Favorable rains are in the forecast for a significant portion of the Black Sea for the next two weeks and no talk of excessive heat. It’s a big world market out there!  French wheat is cheaper than that of the Russians.  That makes US wheat even harder to sell.  Export Sales are expected to be puny at 0 – 13 mill bu with 12.3 needed.  The S/D report is expected to show  17/18 carry out at 1.068 bill bu in a 941-1.090 range. The 18/19 Carry out est is 932 in a 780-1.070 bill range.

LAST Mon Planting Progress:

US WINTER WHEAT CONDITIONS:   34% TW,  33% LW, and 53% LY

IL WINTER WHEAT CONDITIONS:    53% TW,  59% LW, and 60% LY

US WINTER WHEAT HEADED:     33% TW,  19% LW, 49% LY, and 41% AVG

IL WINTER WHEAT HEADED:    14% TW,  5% LW, 76% LY, and 32% AVG

US SPRING WHEAT PLANTED:   30% TW, 10% LW, 51% LY, and 51% AVG