COMMENTARY 5/8/18

The US rain forecast got more complicated today with 1-2” of accum now likely for the N half of the Corn Belt between now and Sun with lesser amounts for the balance and mostly dry everywhere else.  IA has some more significant chances once we get into next week.  Heavy rain/flooding for areas in Argentina and just a few showers affect Brazil’s S areas by the end of the week, but for still dry for the N.

CORN

UP 2

Planting accelerates Centrally, but still concerns for the N states with their forecasts looking wetter. Some stabilizing occurring in barge freight on Fri.  Larger tows being considered in the Baton Rouge.  High water is still an issue for Mid Miss and Quad City. Planting progress is catching up in the S but an issue in the N states ND is 17 points behind normal, SD 27,  and MN 35.  In SA, Cordonnier lowered his Brazil est 2 MMT to 84.0 while leaving Argentina unchanged at 32.0.  AgRural lowered Brazil’s safrinha crop 2.7 MMT to 57.2 and has their total Prod at 80.6, down from 83.9 MMT.  The Supply/Demand report on Thurs for 17/8 carry out is thought to be 2.176 bill bu in a  2.101-2.227 range  with the (April’s  was 2.182) and the 18/19 expected to be 1.631 in a 1.411-1.907 range.

Mon’s Planting Progress:

US YC PLANTED:   39% TW,  17% LW, 345 LY, and 44% AVG

IL YC PLANTED:   74% TW,  32% LW, 65% LY, and 56% AVG

US YC EMERGED:   8% TW,  3% LW, 14% LY, and 14% AVG

IL YC EMERGED:   14% TW,  0% LW, 28% LY, and 22% AVG

BEANS              

UP 9

Firmer after yesterday’s sell-off and despite bearish demand news from China, but planting in IL is WAY above normal.  See actuals below.   MN  is behind avg by 17 points, ND is behind 7 and SD down 6 behind normal.  Due to governmental persuading , that it is farmers political duty to plant for their country, China could plant about 9% MORE beans this year, increasing their prod by 1.6 MMT to 15.8 MMT.  Their 18/19 bean imports are expected to be lower than the USDA’s 97 MMT est TY, to 95.  In April,China imported ONLY 6.9 MMT of beans a 4-year low for the month.  Although it was up from 5.7 MMT last month, the total was down 1.1 MMT from 2017.  This slow down may take some pressure off Argentina’s smaller production. Thoughts for Thur’s carry out for 17/18 est at 546 mill in a 495-618 range. The 18/19 Carry out est to be 533 in a 342-744 mill range.

Planting Progress:

US YSB PLANTED:   15% TW,  5% LW, 13% LY, and 13% AVG

IL YSB PLANTED:   29% TW,  7% LW, 14% LY, and 12% AVG

 

WHEAT

UP 3

Firmer.  Spring planting progress did make some progress to 30% complete but still behind last year and behind the 51% avg. Winter conditions were up one but still 19 below last year and 10 less than normal. Thurs’s  report is expected to show  17/18 carry out at 1.068 bill bu in a 941-1.090 range. The 18/19 Carry out est is 932 in a 780-1.070 bill range.

Planting Progress:

US WINTER WHEAT CONDITIONS:   34% TW,  33% LW, and 53% LY

IL WINTER WHEAT CONDITIONS:    53% TW,  59% LW, and 60% LY

US WINTER WHEAT HEADED:     33% TW,  19% LW, 49% LY, and 41% AVG

IL WINTER WHEAT HEADED:    14% TW,  5% LW, 76% LY, and 32% AVG

US SPRING WHEAT PLANTED:   30% TW, 10% LW, 51% LY, and 51% AVG