COMMENTARY 5/7/18

We have three systems capable of making decent rain in the US across the N 2/3 with possibility of slowing planting.  Additional looks possible for next week as well. In SA, some showers for Paraná’s double crop corn while Brazil looks mostly dry for the next 7 – 10 days.  Heavy rains for Argentina with 2 to 5″ possible by the end of the week.

CORN

DOWN 5

Significant planting HAS taken place!  No deal in last week’s tariff discussions with China, Funds sold 15,000 contracts and some rain now expected in Brazil’s dry safrinha areas.  Mondays’ Export Inspections were “man-like”  and above at 75.4 vs expectations of 43-63 mill with 54/week needed.  Some 19 mill went to Other Asia and the Middle East, like Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, and UAR.  As anticipated, our planting progress was thought to be 35-40% and was.  But just LOOK at the IL….18% higher than the 5 year avg!!  Thurs is the next Supply/Demand report.   The 17/8 c/o is est to be 2.176 bill bu in a  2.101-2.227 range  with the (April’l  was 2.182) and the 18/19 expected to be 1.631 in a 1.411-1.907 range.

Planting Progress:

US YC PLANTED:   39% TW,  17% LW, 345 LY, and 44% AVG

IL YC PLANTED:   74% TW,  32% LW, 65% LY, and 56% AVG

US YC EMERGED:   8% TW,  3% LW, 14% LY, and 14% AVG

IL YC EMERGED:   14% TW,  0% LW, 28% LY, and 22% AVG

BEANS              

DOWN 25

Excellent planting progress was made last week and favorable weather for Brazil harvest. Some are concerned that further weakness in the Real and Argentine Peso will cause aggressive producer selling. Our Export Inspections were a bit light at 19.6 vs expectations of 14 – 24 and 26.3 needed per week.  China DID take one US vessel and demand from N Africa and EU are still firm.  Check out that planting progress!!  Someone is planting beans like the  fads in the magazines prescribe.  The readers in IL are REALLY going to town BUT states like MN are only 1% done vs 18% average.  Thoughts for Thur’s S/D report have Carry out for 17/18 est at 546 mill in a 495-618 range. Lest report was 550.  The 18/19 Carry out est to be 533 in a 342-744 mill range.  Prod est’s for SA looks like this:  Argentina 38.4 in a  36.0-40.0 range.  (The USDA was est at 40.0 last report)  Brazil is est to be 116.3 in a 114.9-119.0 range and compares to 115.0 last month.  Next meeting with China is scheduled for 5/15 with tariffs to begin to fly on the 22nd. Oh – and Funds ARE record currently record short beans.

Planting Progress:

US YSB PLANTED:   15% TW,  5% LW, 13% LY, and 13% AVG

IL YSB PLANTED:   29% TW,  7% LW, 14% LY, and 12% AVG

 

WHEAT

DOWN 15

Rain prospects for the US HRW areas, good rain potential for SE Australia with a half in to 1.5″ expected. Russian exports continue at a high pace and US dollar strength is limiting our US export ability to compete worldly.  Today’s Export Inspections were in range at 12.0 vs expectations of 10 -18 but still lite of the 26.9 needed per week.  Spring planting progress was thought to be 20% and planting surpassed those thoughts at 30%!  -though still behind normal.  The report is expected to show  17/18 Carry out at 1.068 bill bu in a 941-1.090 range. Last report was 1.064. The 18/19 Carry out est is 932 in a 780-1.070 bill range.  Russian export shipments were 18.5 mill bu for the week vs 21.4 last week. the previous week.  That compares to the Ukraine’s at 6.3 and 4.9 last week.

Planting Progress:

US WINTER WHEAT CONDITIONS:   34% TW,  33% LW, and 53% LY

IL WINTER WHEAT CONDITIONS:    53% TW,  59% LW, and 60% LY

US WINTER WHEAT HEADED:     33% TW,  19% LW, 49% LY, and 41% AVG

IL WINTER WHEAT HEADED:    14% TW,  5% LW, 76% LY, and 32% AVG

US SPRING WHEAT PLANTED:   30% TW, 10% LW, 51% LY, and 51% AVG