COMMENTARY 5/3/18

 Nice spring rains are expected for 2/3 of the US corn belt into Fri with 1-2″ widespread accums with mild temps for next week.  In SA, hot/dry for Brazil’s N 2/3 of their safrinha crop for the next two plus weeks.

CORN

UP 3

Higher as weather models show a wetter 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day forecasts and demand prospects continue to improve as Brazil’s double crop corn withers. Rains are welcome in KS, NE, MO, and S IA but N and E states are still trying to get into the field to plant.  The market also viewed the announcement of a joint statement between the US and China tomorrow am as a positive sign.  Export Sales were above expectations at 40.2 vs expectations of 28-39 and only 13.5 needed per week.  Mexico was the BIG buyer of 12.2 and decent numbers to Columbia, Egypt, Taiwan, and S Korea.  Good numbers again to Colombia, along Egypt, Taiwan and South Korea.  On the milo fiasco, China cancelled another 2 mill bu and S Korea took on of the vessels afloat that had been headed to China originally.  Gonna be interesting to see what next Mon’s planting progress is. ALOT of yc has been slapped into the ground and has ideal sprouting conditions!

LAST Mon’s Planting Progress:

US YC PLANTED:   17% TW,  5% LW, 32% LY, and 27% AVG

IL YC PLANTED:   32% TW,  4% LW, 59% LY, and 40% AVG

US YC EMERGED:   3% TW,  0% LW, 8% LY, and 6% AVG

IL YC EMERGED:   0% TW,  0% LW, 18% LY, and 10% AVG

BEANS              

UP 10

Weak early as China cancelled 5 mill bu of old crop US beans. –> UNTIL LATE DAY when the press release came out SUGGESTING a positive China/US Trade being announced tomorrow am.  <–Watch this.  China STILL needs our beans.  Export Sales were mid range at 15.3 mill bu vs expectations of 11 – 22 and only 3.5 needed.  Meal Sales were decent at 246 vs expectations of 150-350 and only 54 needed per week.  Bean Oil, too. was strong at 44.5 vs expectations of 8 – 25.  There was a 30 KMT sale to Peru this am!  (See, SOMEONE likes our beans because they are cheap!) In SA, Argentina is about 62% done with their harvest.

 

Planting Progress:

US YSB PLANTED:   5% TW,  2% LW, 9% LY, and 5% AVG

IL YSB PLANTED:   7% TW,  0% LW, 12% LY, and 5% AVG

 

WHEAT

UP 11

Concerns continue. Some MUCH needed rains of 1/2 – 2.0″ DID fall last night inn both KS and OK. The Wheat Quality tour continues showing yields up to 10 bpa LESS than last year. Keep in mind that wheat still is NOT headed out and makes est yield more difficult. The  in N Kansas came in at 38.2 bpa, down from 43 last year and an avg of 40.6.  They also est NE yield at 43.7 vs. 46.9 last and CO at 35.0. If this holds true, this would be KS’s lowest KS prod since 89′. Export Sales were in line at 8.6 old crop vs expectations of 0-11 expected and new crop at 7.7 vs expectations of 4-11 mill bu. From a world view, specs have been short Chicago wheat forever and are exiting their positions as drought monitors, dryness in Canada, Russia, and the Black Sea, and concerns over freeze damage is raising production questions.

Planting Progress:

US WINTER WHEAT CONDITIONS:   33% TW,  31% LW, and 54% LY

IL WINTER WHEAT CONDITIONS:    59% TW,  56% LW, and 72% LY

US WINTER WHEAT HEADED:     19% TW,  13% LW, 41% LY, and 30% AVG

IL WINTER WHEAT HEADED:    5% TW,  4% LW, 61% LY, and 18% AVG

US SPRING WHEAT PLANTED:   10% TW, 3% LW, 30% LY, and 36% AVG