COMMENTARY 5/31/18

Hmmm.. It’s THAT time of year!  Time to start talking about the old dreaded Dry Ridge Dome.  The Central US should see some scattered showers through the weekend then a large, cool, dry air mass moves in, followed by a significant round of heat as NEXT week wears on.  In SA, S Brazil is forecast to get 2 – 4″ of accum which should end their recent drought.

CORN

UNCHANGED

Weather talk caused the Funds to hold off selling for the time being.  Proposed hot weather NEXT week offers support and helped bring us up off of 3.93 CN support.  Today’s Export Sales will be out tomorrow due to Mon’s holiday.  Corn is expected to be 28-39 mill bu with only 8.6 needed per week.  Hot/dry on N China continues crop stress there.

Yest’s Crop Progress:

US YC PLANTED:   92% TW,  81% LW, 90% LY, and 90% AVG

IL YC PLANTED:   100% TW,  96% LW, 92% LY, and 94% AVG

US YC EMERGED:   72% TW,  50% LW, 70% LY, and 69% AVG

IL YC EMERGED:   89% TW,  84% LW, 78% LY, and 81% AVG

US YC CONDITIONS:   

IL YC CONDITIONS:    83% G/E,   88% LW,  52% LY

BEANS              

DOWN 5

Today’s 14 cent range was weakened by trade tariff volatility.  Nearby July fut closed right AT the 100 day moving avg of 10.18½…..supported for now.  NASS Crush for April will be out Fri with early thoughts at 172 mill bu vs 180.6 last month and 149.3 last year. Oil stocks are expected to be around 2.64 billion lbs, vs 2.65 last month and 2.24 last year.  Export Sales  are ex[ected to be 11-22 mill bu with only 2.6 mill needed per week.  (still lots of unshipped sales out there) In SA, Argentina’s Ag Attache is expecteing a bigger bean crop NEXT spring at 57.5 vs 56.0 and compared to THIS year’s 39 MMT est (greater area). Of more immediate interest might be his forecast for bean imports:  4 MMT this year with the WASDE people at just 2.85 MMT

 

Crop Progress:

US YSB PLANTED:   77% TW,  56% LW, 65% LY, and 62% AVG

IL YSB PLANTED:   90% TW,  81% LW, 60% LY, and 62% AVG

US YSB EMERGED:   47% TW,  26 % LW, 34% LY, and 32% AVG

IL YSB EMERGED:   75% TW,  57% LW, 35% LY, and 35% AVG

 

WHEAT

UP 4

Firmer.  Export sales for Friday are estimated at 6 – 17 mill bu which is interesting as currently we are uncompetitive with Russia and France. The Ukraine and Russia’s forecast remain drier than normal and their spring wheat regions are too wet.  Russian spring wheat planting is well behind normal with just 8 of 13 mill hectares planted really should ALREADY been done. In the good ol US, rains are forecast for the Dakotas, MN, and up in da’ Canada spring wheat areas.  (did you catch dat accent, eh?)  That should help that which is newly planted.  Export Sales are expected to be negative 4 mill to positive 4 mill with 37.6 needed.

Crop Progress:

US WINTER WHEAT CONDITIONS:   38% G/E TW,  36% LW, and 50% LY

IL WINTER WHEAT CONDITIONS:    66% G/E TW,  66% LW, and 51% LY

US WINTER WHEAT HEADED:     73% TW,  461 LW, 79% LY, and 75% AVG

IL WINTER WHEAT HEADED:    93% TW,  74% LW, 97% LY, and 89% AVG

US SPRING WHEAT PLANTED:   91% TW, 79% LW, 95% LY, and 89% AVG

US SPRING WHEAT EMERGED:   63% TW, 37% LW, 77% LY, and 68% AVG