COMMENTARY 5/30/17

Cool and mild for the next 10 days with some chance of showers with decent coverage. Spring wheat areas should receive needed rain, while all other areas should stay wet into the middle of the month.   In SA,  heavy rains focus on S Brazil, affecting their wheat and a small amount of corn production. 

CORN

DOWN 7

The three day weekend brought rather decent weather for planting and growing conditions. Export Inspections were near the high end of trade expectations at 47 mill vs expectations of 37-49 and 9 more than the rate of 37.6 per week.  This afternoon’s Planting Progress was expected to be 90-92% complete vs the 5 yr average of 94%.  Expectations for today’s G/E ratings were 65-70%.  The E states came in rough with IN at 43% G/E, OH 49% and IL at 52% which continues to keep basis firm there nearby.   See actuals below.

Planting Progress:

US YC PLANTED:    91% TW, 84% LW, 93% LY, and 93% AVG

IL YC PLANTED:    93% TW, 89% LW, 93% LY, and 96% AVG

US YC EMERGED:   73%TW,  54% LW,  75% LY, and 75% AVG

IL YC EMERGED:   80% TW, 67% LW,86% LY, and 86% AVG

US CONDITIONS:  65% G/E,  na% LW, and 72% LY

IL CONDITIONS: 52% G/E, na% LW

BEANS

DOWN 14

Good planting conditions over the holiday weekend and more talk of even more acres.  The global production for 16/17 is likely to increase another 35 MMT (twice as much as Iowa grew last year).  Yey another 4.8 mill bu old crop sale to Unknown was ignored today. Export Inspections were towards the low end , BUT, within range at 12.3 mill and vs expectations of 9 – 18 mill bu and only 13.2 needed per week.  Today’s Planting Progress was expected to be 64-67% and compares with a 5 yr average of 68%.  See actuals below!  Celeres says  the Brazil producer has again stopped selling, following 3 MMT sold to have been May 18/19.  Producers there have sold some 58% of the crop, down from 69% last year and 12 below the 5 yr avg.

Planting Progress:

US YSB PLANTED: 67% TW, 53% LW, 71% TY, and 68% AVG

IL YSB PLANTED:    62% TW, 48% LW, 69% LY, and 71% AVG

US YSB EMERGED:   37%TW,  19% LW,  42% LY, and 40% AVG

IL YSB EMERGED:   38% TW, 18% LW, 41% LY, and 47% AVG

 

WHEAT

DOWN 8

Followed yc and ysb lower.  Export Inspections were a whopper at 22.2 mill vs expectations of 17 – 24 mill bu. Winter wheat ratings were expected to be steady at 52% G/E.  See actuals below!

Planting Progress:

US WINTER WHEAT HEADED:   80% TW, 72% LW, 83% LY, and 77% AVG

IL WINTER WHEAT HEADED:    98% TW, 94% LW, 93% LY, and 91% AVG

US G/E CONDITIONS: 50% G/E, 52% LW, and 63% LY

IL WHEAT CONDITIONS: 51% G/E, 44% LW – a 7% increase!