COMMENTARY 5/29/2018

This week, three systems come together and as Alberto works his way N and should produce accums of 1/2 to 1 1/2 over a wide area.  Temps should be unseasonably mild and cooler in some areas. The cooler  will carry with it drier air, limiting accums.  coverage/amounts, keeping most areas only near or drier than normal over the June 5-12 period, but some t-storms are probable.  May was was the third warmest since 1895 for the Corn Belt and N Plains.



Politics and trade worries overshadow good exports and additional sales for old and new. Export Inspections were robust at 67.1 and just above the top end of the 55-67 expectations.  Only 52 mill are needed per week. Europe was a BIG buyer of 12 mill bu!  Some 28 K was sold for 17/18 to Unknown and 203 K for 18/19 deliv also to Unknown.  Planting progress this afternoon was expected to be 90-92%.  See actuals below.  Cordonnier’s initial US Production est was based on 87.5 million planted vs the USDA at  88.0.  Harvested acres was 80.2 mill with a yield of 176 bpa, vs the USDA at 174.0.  Yes, NE China still needs rain.


Crop Progress:

US YC PLANTED:   92% TW,  81% LW, 90% LY, and 90% AVG

IL YC PLANTED:   100% TW,  96% LW, 92% LY, and 94% AVG

US YC EMERGED:   72% TW,  50% LW, 70% LY, and 69% AVG

IL YC EMERGED:   89% TW,  84% LW, 78% LY, and 81% AVG


IL YC CONDITIONS:    83% G/E,   88% LW,  52% LY



Trade talks with China don’t appear to be fairing well after the long weekend.  Some see the Brazil truckers strike winding down. Brazil’s exporters were forced to declare force majeure due the strike which did slow movement into export positions. The port of Santos was currently receiving no truck beans though still having loading commitments of 2.3 MMT. Export Inspections too, didn’t help as were weak at 21.2 vs expectations of 18 -29 and 26.2 needed per week.  Indeed, China cancelled 7.5.  Planting progress still WAY above normal with 78-80% expected.  See actuals below.

Crop Progress:

US YSB PLANTED:   77% TW,  56% LW, 65% LY, and 62% AVG

IL YSB PLANTED:   90% TW,  81% LW, 60% LY, and 62% AVG

US YSB EMERGED:   47% TW,  26 % LW, 34% LY, and 32% AVG

IL YSB EMERGED:   75% TW,  57% LW, 35% LY, and 35% AVG




Strong early but didn’t hold as trade and global credit concerns overtook the concerns over production. Export Inspections were mid-range at 15.8 vs 46 needed per week and expectations of 9-18.  Spring Wheat planting continues to improve.

Crop Progress:


IL WINTER WHEAT CONDITIONS:    66% G/E TW,  66% LW, and 51% LY

US WINTER WHEAT HEADED:     73% TW,  461 LW, 79% LY, and 75% AVG

IL WINTER WHEAT HEADED:    93% TW,  74% LW, 97% LY, and 89% AVG

US SPRING WHEAT PLANTED:   91% TW, 79% LW, 95% LY, and 89% AVG

US SPRING WHEAT EMERGED:   63% TW, 37% LW, 77% LY, and 68% AVG