COMMENTARY 5/28/15

More scattered rain chances for the Central US into the weekend.  Then, expect two days of moderate temps with several days of drying.  More scattered storms affect an even larger area later next week into NEXT weekend.

St Louis river level STEADY at +23.4 and forecast to be 23.1 by 6/1.

 The Fund’s Position:                 Bushels Today     Today(In # of Contracts)       Past Record(In # of Contracts) 

CORNRECORD SHORT    -886 Million            -177,379                                     -155,379

BEANRECORD SHORT    -443 Million              -88,601                                      -75,601

WHEAT – SHORT                  -419 Million              -111,373                                       -111,373

CORN          

UP 4    

Perhaps the market has removed too much of the weather premium?  We did receive a  supportive ethanol with Ethanol Production’s daily output up 1.1% to 969 K bpd and 337 K/1.7% draw on inventories, down to 20.097 mb.  The corn crop that is planted looks splendid!  Tomorrow’s Export Sales are expected to  be 22 – 30 mln bu.

TUES’ Crop Progress:

US PLANTED 92% TW, 85% LW, 86% LY, and 88% AVG.  The State of IL PLANTED:  97% TW, 94% LW, 93% LY, and 93% AVG.

US EMERGED:  74% TW, 56%LW, 56% LY, and 62% AVG.  The State of IL EMERGED: 87% TW, 75%LW, 78% LY, and 75% AVG.

US CONDITION: 74% G/E       STATE OF IL CONDITION: 80 % G/E

Bloomberg Trader Bias:  Bullish: 26% TW (28% LW), Bearish 41% (34% LW); Neutral 32% (38% LW)

 

BEANS     

DOWN 1

Somewhat volatile today, ranging from 5 lower to 7 higher.  The Rosario Port problems still persist with 31 vessels now reported as being delayed.

TUES’ Crop Progress:

US PLANTED 61% TW, 45% LW, 55% LY, and 55% AVG.  The State of IL PLANTED:  69% TW, 47% LW, 60% LY, and 57% AVG.

US EMERGED:  32% TW, 13%LW, 23% LY, and 25% AVG.  The State of IL EMERGED: 38% TW, 14%LW, 29% LY, and 29% AVG.

Bloomberg Trader Bias:  Bullish: 6% TW (6% LW); Bearish: 62% (69%); Neutral: 22% (18%)

 

WHEAT          

UP 1

Like beans, a 10-15 cent trading range.  Supported by dryness in Russia raising production concerns. The Russian Grain Union Chief expects their 15-16 wheat output at 54-55 MMT versus LY at 59.1 (USDA at 53.5 MT).  Their spring wheat sowing is expected to decline 1 million ha short of recent estimates.  There are some huge damage concerns to  the Indian wheat crop with production forecast to fall as much as 17%, down to 80 MMT from 95.9 in 14/15.  France’s AgriMer raises wheat export prospects by 500-700 K MT, with improved outlook for Thailand, South Korea and Indonesia.  The Commodity Weather Group expects an active summer weather pattern for Europe and could cause some wheat harvest delays while a drier pattern is expected for the E Ukraine and S Russia, which could hurt overall corn usage.

TUES’ Crop Progress:

Winter Wheat Headed:  77% TW, 68% LW, 68% LY, and 67% AVG.  The Stat of IL Headed:  89% TW, 70% LW, 70% LY, and 83% AVG.

Winter Wheat Ratings:  45% G/E, 45% LW, and 30% LY.  The State of IL Ratings:  59% G/E, 57% LW.

US Spring Wheat Planting progress:  96% TW, 94% LW, 70% LY, and 79% AVG.  Emergence:  80% TW, 67% LW, 40% LY, and 54% AVG.

Bloomberg Trader Bias: Bullish 50% TW (41%LW), Bearish 32% (31% LW), Neutral 18% (28% LW)