COMMENTARY 5/26/15

Less rain occurs in the S Plains, but completely dry weather is unlikely.  For the immediate time, scattered showers dot the Corn Belt and Delta over the next 24 hours.  storms will be prevalent  Wed – Sun except for the far north spring wheat areas.  Very warm to occasionally hot weather will begin Sunday-Monday in the Plains; the resulting heat will shifts t-storms to the north, keeping the Corn Belt and Plains moist.

St Louis river level RISING at +20.1 and forecast to be 22.7 by 5/30.

CORN          

DOWN 5    

Weakness in wheat, stronger dollar. Export Inspections were solid and slightly above trade ideas at 39.6 vs expectations of 31 – 39million bu’s.  Good amounts were taken from  to Japan, S Korea, Mexico & Other West Hemi destinations.  Milo Export Inspections  were 4.4 with 4.7 per week needed.

US PLANTED 92% TW, 85% LW, 86% LY, and 88% AVG.  The State of IL PLANTED:  97% TW, 94% LW, 93% LY, and 93% AVG.

US EMERGED:  74% TW, 56%LW, 56% LY, and 62% AVG.  The State of IL EMERGED: 87% TW, 75%LW, 78% LY, and 75% AVG.

US CONDITION: 74% G/E       STATE OF IL CONDITION: 80 % G/E

The Fund’s position is now RECORD SHORT at -132,960 contracts or 664 MILLION bu.  (Previous record they have ever been is -132,191 contracts.)  

Bloomberg Trader Bias:  Bullish: 26% TW (28% LW), Bearish 41% (34% LW); Neutral 32% (38% LW)

 

BEANS     

DOWN 2   

There is a growing S Am price advantage to US beans,  mixed sentiment on bird flu impact,  and new crop meal sale didn’t go unnoticed.  Export Inspections were solid at 10.7 vs expectations of  4-10 million bu’s. EU and Mexico were the big takers.  Lack of Brazil beans plus freight is helping to keep US beans a viable option for some late-season EU business.

US PLANTED 61% TW, 45% LW, 55% LY, and 55% AVG.  The State of IL PLANTED:  69% TW, 47% LW, 60% LY, and 57% AVG.

US EMERGED:  32% TW, 13%LW, 23% LY, and 25% AVG.  The State of IL EMERGED: 38% TW, 14%LW, 29% LY, and 29% AVG.

The Fund’s position is NEAR RECORD SHORT at -49,485 contracts or 247 MILLION bu.  (The previous record they have ever been is – 56,764 contracts.) 

Bloomberg Trader Bias:  Bullish: 6% TW (6% LW); Bearish: 62% (69%); Neutral: 22% (18%)

 

WHEAT          

DOWN 22

Ample global wheat supplies despite US quality woes.  Export Inspections—15.4, also above trade expectations (9-15). China lifted 2.2 mbu.  Locally, the SRW timing is getting critical and we NEED to see cool/rainy weather change to prevent disease issues.  So far,  disease pressure is still limited, BUT expect vomi issues if the 5 – 7 day forecast stays wet. There has already been some talk on the ‘Lower Miss river regarding vomi discounts with max 2ppm, trying to keep old crop vom out of pipeline.   ~STAY TUNED~

Winter Wheat Headed:  77% TW, 68% LW, 68% LY, and 67% AVG.  The Stat of IL Headed:  89% TW, 70% LW, 70% LY, and 83% AVG.

Winter Wheat Ratings:  45% G/E, 45% LW, and 30% LY.  The State of IL Ratings:  59% G/E, 57% LW.

US Spring Wheat Planting progress:  96% TW, 94% LW, 70% LY, and 79% AVG.  Emergence:  80% TW, 67% LW, 40% LY, and 54% AVG.

The Fund’s position is NEAR RECORD SHORT at -97,610 contracts or 488 MILLION bu.  (The previous record they have ever been is – 111,373 contracts.)  Funds are still carrying the vast majority of their giant SHORT and still beckons our attention.  

Bloomberg Trader Bias: Bullish 50% TW (41%LW), Bearish 32% (31% LW), Neutral 18% (28% LW)