COMMENTARY 5/24/18

Forecasts appear drier as that high pressure manifests and now appears to be blocking some moisture which should limit accums to only 3/4″ to 1.5″ through next Fri.  SOME weather models indicate the potential ridging developing across the N Central US June 1-6.  In SA, E Argentina and S Brazil are both expecting 1″ between now and June 1st.

CORN

DOWN 4

Traded both sides with early rally spurred by dryness in China and of course trade concerns. Old crop Export Sales were in range but still some what disappointing 33.6 vs expectations of 28-43 mill.  New crop was 10.8 and was 7 mill above the average guesti-mation. China WAS a buyer of 3.5 mill of the old crop and Japan and S Korea continue to be GOOD customers!  We still have 701 mill bu of unshipped sales, or avg’d out, that’s 54 mill/week…..IF we ship everything by Aug 31.  There was an unknown cancellation of 132K US milo.  In the FWIW category, in April, China imported 380 K MT of corn.  Their Jan-April total, so far, is MORE than double the 2017 level!  Just LOOK at the germination on the newly planted fields!  Now that you KNOW it is planted, be pro-active about fall planning, how much old crop you can carry into new if your selling objectives don’t get met?  What are your objectives?  Now that corn has a 4 in front of all values, there shouldn’t be any hang-ups.

 

BEANS              

DOWN 4

Three week highs were made today but stalled on resistance at 10.50 SN.  Politics, trade, weather, and demand all go together to make interesting times ahead!  We’re waiting patiently for more clarity or confirmation with China demand.  Recent weakness in US and SA meal basis is causing some caution with buyers as well.  Old crop Export Sales were puny with a net decrease of 5.1 mill bu vs expectations of negative – 7 to +15 mill.  China cancelled 1.9 and Unknown cancelled 3.3 mill.  New crop too was just 300K bu, WAY  below the 7-15 expectations.  Meal Sales were firm 240 vs expectations of  100-400 and only 40 a week needed from here on out. Some 43K new crop were cancelled (Philippines).  Interesting to notice that US bean and meal exports the past month are RECORD high, despite China’s “reduced presence”.  So someone DOES want our US products.  Also worthy of note, China may have purchased at least 2 cargoes of Aug beans to come out of the PNW.  It is thought that they still need to source some 6 MMT for Aug/Sep.  In SA, those Brazil truckers are having their way, disrupting port service. About a third of the bean/meal shipments at the Paranagua Port have been slowed/suspended due to the strike.  After denying the claims (just yesterday), Argentina’s AgMin says they are considering suspending their plan to lower bean export taxes each month. The 30% tax and was supposed to be reduced by a half percentage point every month for two years.  According to Reuters, the tax levy is at 27.5% currently.

 

WHEAT

DOWN 1

Mixed!  Strong most of the day and selling off into the close probably on profit taking.  Wheat just traded at 10 month highs with dry weather headed for the HRW belt and HOT (triple digit) temps are in the forecast for NEXT week. Russia’s Sovecon reduced their prod to 77 MMT, down from 78.2 MMT earlier due to dryness. Export Sales were toward the high end of the expected range at4.1 mill vs expectations of -4 to + 4 mill but pale when considering we need to be selling 21.4 per week to keep up with USDA ests.  Have you noticed the new crop wheat price??  Take a look at the values for NEXT J/J 19!!!  Simply stupendous!!