COMMENTARY 5/23/18

The complex weather continues but confidence IS improving as a high pressure sets up in the SE Corn Belt to the S Plains causing rain in the N for the next 7-10 days covering a third of the production belt. Temps should be warmer, especially from KS and S.

CORN

UP 4

Dryness continues in Brazil and US planting in the N isn’t being helped by MORE rain.  A new optional origin was announced today to Saudi Arabia.  On the Weekly EIA Eth report,  output is at 1.028 mbpd was short of the 1.04-1.068 expected range and 30 K below the average guess.  Inventories too were bearish, increasing 624 K to 22.13 mill barrels.  Export Sales, out tomorrow am are expected to  be28-43 mill bu with only 9.6 mill bu needed.  On the continuing milo tariff saga, a boat that was originally loaded and steamed towards China, turned around, headed back to the US, but now since tariffs have been dropped, the vessel has once again turned BACK around, headed to China.  Locally, there are some really NICE prices levels available for new fall corn all the way to Mar!!  Shouldn’t have to think about prices like this!

 

BEANS              

UP 9
Ideas that China IS going to be meeding beans later on in the summer, from the good ‘ol US.  
Currency values in SA were quiet with the Brazil Real near 3.62 and the Arg Peso at 24.48. The Brazil truck strike is now on the third day as trucker flex their muscles and reports of several bean processors shut down.   There is LOTS of talk about China potentially increasing their consumption of ag and energy from the US.  Spot crush margins there are negative but hog margins have now turned positive and crushers are thought to be mostly covered through July but still have a significant amount to buy in A/S.  Export Sales are expected to be  negative -7 to +15 mill bu with only 1.8 mill needed from here on out.

WHEAT

UP 9

Additional production concerns caused the 15 cent trading range in US HRW, the EU, Black Sea, Canada and Australia. The heat is in the 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts for our HRW areas. Export Sales are thought to be light at negative -4 to +4 with 21.4 mill needed.  No reason NOT to sell wheat for NEXT Jul of 2019!!  Look at that price!