COMMENTARY 5/23/17

We have a speckled forecast with areas of rain for more of the Central US especially from here East. A second bout comes through again for the weekend, especially for the South.  Temps look to warm up mid next week.

CORN

DOWN 5

Excess rainfall from MO,IL, and IN causing some multiple replants. Factoring in the forecast manyproducers are probably at a point to live with substandard populations vs replanting in early June.   Conditions better in the W, hence the market taking into account in today’s movement lower.

 

 Planting Progress:

US YC PLANTED:    84% TW, 71% LW, 84% LY, and 85% AVG

IL YC PLANTED:    89% TW, 75% LW, 88% LY, and 90% AVG

US YC EMERGED:   54%TW,  31% LW,  58% LY, and 55% AVG

IL YC EMERGED:   67% TW, 47% LW,75% LY, and 69% AVG

BEANS

DOWN 8

Cold and damp forecast are still not much of a concern (yet).   Potential for acres offsetting late planted yield drag is a possibility. The USDA announced a 126kmt old crop export sale.  Brazil’s Real firmed a half of a %.  Processors are struggling with cash margins from cheap meal basis and no confirmation on biodiesel or producer tax credits.

Planting Progress:

US YSB PLANTED: 53% TW, 32% LW, 53% TY, and 52% AVG

IL YSB PLANTED:    48% TW, 23% LW, 48% LY, and 52% AVG

US YSB EMERGED:   19%TW,  8 % LW,  20% LY, and 21% AVG

IL YSB EMERGED:   18% TW, 6% LW, 19% LY, and 23% AVG

WHEAT

DOWN 5

The HRW question seems to be how many acres will be harvested due to disease?  Early SRW harvested in GA are good quality and yields, but overall is still too cool/wet for quality guesses.

Planting Progress:

US WINTER WHEAT HEADED:   72% TW, 63% LW, 74% LY, and 67% AVG

IL WINTER WHEAT HEADED:    94% TW, 86% LW, 87% LY, and 77% AVG

US G/E CONDITIONS: 52% G/E, 51% LW, and 62% LY

IL WHEAT CONDITIONS: 44% G/E, 52% LW – Yet Another 8% drop!