COMMENTARY 5/23/14

WHAT YOU SHOULD DO BEFORE PLANTING:

WE STRONGLY RECOMMEND that producers verify that their seed varieties ARE approved for MAJOR EXPORT MARKETS.  The STL River markets ARE planning to test loads delivered.  They RESERVE the right to reject loads with unapproved traits.  If you have seed that is NOT APPROVED FOR MAJOR EXPORT MARKETS, we encourage you to check with your seed representative to exchange for seed that IS APPROVED for GLOBAL USE.

**ADDITIONAL DELIVERY RESTRICTIONS!**

BUNGE will not accept delivery of produced from the following seed:

CORN: Agrisure Viptera MIR 162 (Syngenta), Bayer/Genective -Event VCO-01981-5, Agrisure Duracade – Event 5307 (Syngenta), Stine Maize – Event HCEM485, DuPont/Pioneer – Event 4114-3, Monsanto – MON 87427

SOYBEAN: Vistive Gold – MON 87705 (Monsanto), Soymega – MON 87769 (Monsanto), Plenish (DuPont/Pioneer), Bayer – Event FG72

WHAT YOU SHOULD KNOW: 

China’s rejections of a banned variety of genetically modified U.S. corn have now cost the U.S. agriculture industry up to $2.9 billion, a grain group said, on losses from trade disruptions. The National Grain and Feed Association (NGFA) estimated in a report, that rejections of shipments containing Syngenta AG’s Agrisure Viptera corn resulted in losses of at least $1 billion.  This is based on economic analysis that included data supplied by top global grain exporters. The largest estimates of losses are based on the loss in corn price, which  translated to producer losses. – JSA

 

ATTN SPECIALTY CORN GROWERS:

Ask your seed company what/how they are testing the NGMO purity on the seed you are going to plant.  Ensure what they are selling you IS pure (by lab testing your seed) BEFORE planting .  There are some contaminated seed issues out there.

 

COMMENTARY

CORN

STEADY  to UP 1

China’s Imports of U.S. Corn Plummet as Curbs on GM Seed Tighten

St Louis river levels easing  at +18.4 ft today and forecast to be 17.5 by 5/28.

Very little new news.  Favorable planting weather  continues through the weekend and will help the Northern states wrap up.  Thursday’s Export Sales were so-so at 20 mill vs  13 – 21 mill expected old crop.   Monday’s Export Inspections were 41.7.  NEXT MONDAY’S Planting report is expected to be around the 85 – 90% mark vs 88% AVG. This Monday’s plantings were 73% planted, 59% LW, 65% LY, and 76% AVG.  (some estimates on plantings were as high as 85%.)  The State of IL was 84% planted this week, 78%LW, 66%LY, and 73% AVG.      For the US, Emergence was 34% this week, 18%LW, 17%LY, and 42% AVG.  The State of IL was Emerged 60% this week, 36%LW, 14% LY, and45% AVG.

 

BEANS

OLD DOWN 3   NEW DOWN 4

More old crop volatility as the Board tries to ration what’s left of the old crop supply (by importing from SA.)  Funds were active getting in position for the long three day weekend.  With the rally of late, some are saying that beans are now overbought.  Argentine bean harvest is up 3% at 70% complete, which is 23% behind this time last year.  Excessive harvest moisture may encourage more producers to sell this year with the impact that soggy weather has on bagged storage bean quality.  NEXT MONDAY’S US Planting report is expected to be around the 50% mark although some guesses have it as high as 60%. Thursday’s Export Sales were impressive at +6 mill vs expectations of -6 to +4.  New Crop fell short at 16.6 vs expectations of 18 -26.  China and one other unknown were the buyers.  New crop buying is currently at a 4 year low.   Last Monday’s Plantings report was at the low end of expectations at 33% planted, 20% LW, 21%LY, and 38% AVG.  The State of IL was 36% planted this week, 26% LW, 16% LY, and 32% AVG.   For the US, Emergence this week was 9%, 3%LY, and 11% AVG.  South American beans are still coming UP the MISS.  We may still need MORE SA beans to take care of our domestic needs.  China’s crush margins ARE getting more into the positive territory than in the last month.

WHEAT

DOWN 7

A wetter outlook.  Rain in the forecast for the dry HRW areas.  High priced US wheat is not making it easy to attract foreign export business.  Spring wheat is now expected to be 70% Planted on Tuesday, up from 49%.  Export Sales were 5.2 vs expectations of 2 – 9 mill.      New crop was 7.7 vs expectations of 6 – 11.  The French Port of Rouen Exports have reached a six week high, rising to 184.5k MT as Algeria buys 143k soft wheat.

Monday’s Export Inspections were 20.3 which was in range of 19 – 23.   US Spring Wheat is 49%planted this week, 34% LW, 41% LY, and68% AVG.  Spring Wheat Emergence is 24% this week, 12% LW, 30% LY, and40% AVG.  Winter Wheat headed is 57%this week, 44% LW, 41% LY, and58% AVG.  IL Wheat is 50% headed this week, 16% LW, 44%LY, and 67% AVG.  The BIG ONE:  WINTER WHEAT CONDIDTIONS: 29% G/E this week, 30% LW, and 31% LY.  Market was expecting recent rains to boost ratings.  Good/Excellent by state, IL is 62% this week, and 63% LW.  Texas is 11% G/E this week, and 11% LW.  OK is 5% G/E this week and 6%LW. KS is 12% G/E this week and 13% LW.  Continue to keep an eye peeled on the Black Sea region as turmoil continues with Ukraine and Russia.

ESTL CITY ORDINANCE MAX LOAD WEIGHT 10,000 lbs ~POSTPONED UNIL APRIL 30th.  ~Still reportedly “open for business as usual”