COMMENTARY 5/2/18

Sounds like our local forecast FOR rain is becoming less.  It’s down to an 80% chance….and done by 2pm.  Aside from that, widespread showers are expected to cover 2/3’s of the corn belt but then drying with some cooler temps next week.  In SA, still hot/dry for Brazil’s safrinha crop and showers expected for Argentina.

 

CORN

DOWN 1

Quiet with everyone in the field making up for lost time.  Despite being behind overall, some folks in N IL are getting done with corn and half done on beans.  We’ll likely still be behind on Mon BUT not like we were. With everyone in the field barge freight DID ease some more! Thursday’s Export Sales are expected to be 28 -39 mill with 13.5 needed per week.

LAST Mon’s Planting Progress:

US YC PLANTED:   17% TW,  5% LW, 32% LY, and 27% AVG

IL YC PLANTED:   32% TW,  4% LW, 59% LY, and 40% AVG

US YC EMERGED:   3% TW,  0% LW, 8% LY, and 6% AVG

IL YC EMERGED:   0% TW,  0% LW, 18% LY, and 10% AVG

BEANS              

DOWN 10

Mixed.  Crush was friendly meal/oil but we do have a nice US bean supply.  Crush at a record 182.2  and 30 mill than last report.  Tariff news and China on hold as the sides gather in meeting to discuss this week.  How long will they wait and will they additionally tax purchases from the US.  They DO still have beans bought from the US and it is still unknown whether they will take delivery, roll forward to next year, or cancel. Tomorrow’s Export Sales are expected to be 11- 22 mill bu with 3.5 needed per week.

Planting Progress:

US YSB PLANTED:   5% TW,  2% LW, 9% LY, and 5% AVG

IL YSB PLANTED:   7% TW,  0% LW, 12% LY, and 5% AVG

 

WHEAT

DOWN 3

Still weather.  The KS wheat tour is suggesting a 10% or more yield decline. Hot/dry for Ukraine, Romania, and S Russia.  The next two weeks continue to look dry.  Australia dryness is slowing sowing.  Export Sales, out tomorrow are expected to ben0 -11 mill with 14 mill needed.

Planting Progress:

US WINTER WHEAT CONDITIONS:   33% TW,  31% LW, and 54% LY

IL WINTER WHEAT CONDITIONS:    59% TW,  56% LW, and 72% LY

US WINTER WHEAT HEADED:     19% TW,  13% LW, 41% LY, and 30% AVG

IL WINTER WHEAT HEADED:    5% TW,  4% LW, 61% LY, and 18% AVG

US SPRING WHEAT PLANTED:   10% TW, 3% LW, 30% LY, and 36% AVG