COMMENTARY 5/18/17

There’s still time to get some beans in the ground as our chances rain increase!  Severe storms are expected for the Plains.  The forecast is still mostly unchanged with conditions being right for two rounds of rain with previously reduced totals of 1 – 2” for the NW half of the Belt late week as we get into the weekend. Another 1 – 2″ is expected for the SW, (excluding the Plains).  A seasonable/cool period with chances for light accum are possible for NEXT week, the 22-27th.  The BEST chance for rain is across the SE half of the Central US.

CORN

DOWN 5

It was all about the Brazilian Real today with the potential impeachment of President Temer sending the Real dramatically lower. Temper is expected to hold a speech this evening. Export Sales were decent at 27.8 mill bu vs expectations of 20 -30 mill.  Of that total, Japan took 6, Mexico 4.4, Spain 3.8, Taiwan 3.6 and Peru 3.4.

 

Planting Progress:

US YC PLANTED:    71% TW, 47% LW, 73% LY, and 70% AVG

IL YC PLANTED:    75% TW, 65% LW, 82% LY, and 77% AVG

US YC EMERGED:   31%TW,  15% LW,  41% LY, and 36% AVG

IL YC EMERGED:   47% TW, 29% LW,61% LY, and 50% AVG

BEANS

DOWN 31

Brazilian President Michel Temer was caught on tape regarding bribes and the Petrobas corruption scandal.  Angry crowds  are calling for impeachment of Temer.  The Real reacted immediately, plummeting 8%, the largest one day move since the US 2008 financial crisis. Corruption COULD be viewed as favorable very long term. The thought of massive SA selling drove our futures lower and spreads wider.   SA farmer selling is some ~17% behind last year. Export Sales today were 13.1 mill vs expectations of 7-15 and -3.6/week needed.

 

US YSB PLANTED: 32% TW, 14% LW, 34% TY, and 32% AVG

IL YSB PLANTED:    23% TW, 14% LW, 28% LY, and 31% AVG

US YSB EMERGED:   8%TW,  na % LW,  9% LY, and 9% AVG

IL YSB EMERGED:   6% TW, 1% LW, 9% LY, and 9% AVG

WHEAT

DOWN 1

Mixed Export Sales of 9.1 mill were actually above the top end of market expectations. By class in total, HRS led the way at 9.5 mbu. HRW was 8.3, White was 3.2, SRW 1.6, and Durum 900 kbu.  Weather in W Australia is gaining attention as several weeks of dry weather is starting to take a toll at a critical period.  So far, early harvest in N Texas is running low on protein levels, adding to market fears the overall crop will be light in protein.

US WINTER WHEAT HEADED:   63% TW, 50% LW, 66% LY, and 57% AVG

IL WINTER WHEAT HEADED:    86% TW, 78% LW, 78% LY, and 56% AVG

US G/E CONDITIONS: 51% G/E, 53% LW, and 62% LY

IL WHEAT CONDITIONS: 52% G/E, 60% LW – Another 8% drop!