COMMENTARY 5/17/17

There’s still time to get some beans in the ground before our rain chances get significant!  The forecast today was unchanged and two rounds of rain COULD be headed our way with previously reduced totals of 1 – 2” for the NW half of the Belt late week as we get into the weekend. Another 1 – 2″ is expected for the SW, (excluding the Plains).  A seasonable/cool period with chances for light accum are possible for NEXT week, the 22-27th.  The BEST chance for rain is across the SE half of the Central US.

CORN

UP 4

The equity markets took a hit supposedly causing the trade to be concerned over health care, tax cuts, and infrastructure legislation (that’s more FAKE news folks and it is going to get into ALL of our pockets directly if we continue to tolerate it). -plus, the potential for wet weather slowing the planting progress in the Midwest.  The Dow closed down 370 and the US Dollar also dropped to 97.370, its lowest level since election day. Rotary hoes have been taken out of the shed in the Central Belt but all in all replant is NOT significant. S Central IL looks to be replanting 10% of its acres (not including bottoms that were flooded). Tomorrow’s Export Sales are expected to be 20 -30 mill bu w/ just 10.9 needed.

Planting Progress:

US YC PLANTED:    71% TW, 47% LW, 73% LY, and 70% AVG

IL YC PLANTED:    75% TW, 65% LW, 82% LY, and 77% AVG

US YC EMERGED:   31%TW,  15% LW,  41% LY, and 36% AVG

IL YC EMERGED:   47% TW, 29% LW,61% LY, and 50% AVG

BEANS

UNCHANGED

Tried to stay positive today!  Weather still looks decent for a couple more days before the next rains hit. Export sales on Thursday morning are expected to be in 7–15 mbu range with -2.9 needed per week from here on out. We’ve already sold 2.100 bill with yesterday’s sales announcement, and another 7-15 mbu starts the countdown to 2.150 bill bu. Argentina has the cheapest beans in the world, –> BUT <– the  cheapER US dollar, and firm Brazil Real, keeps the US looking MORE attractive!

 

US YSB PLANTED: 32% TW, 14% LW, 34% TY, and 32% AVG

IL YSB PLANTED:    23% TW, 14% LW, 28% LY, and 31% AVG

US YSB EMERGED:   8%TW,  na % LW,  9% LY, and 9% AVG

IL YSB EMERGED:   6% TW, 1% LW, 9% LY, and 9% AVG

WHEAT

UP 2

Better with the weaker $ and potential for some demand opening up just ahead of harvest in the Black Sea region.  The dollar reached the lowest since pre-election time. Egypt showed up as a surprise buyer of 295K MT of wheat and a couple of additional cargos of US HRW for June deliv.  HRW harvest is ready to start in TX/OK as soon as the weather is conducive. All eyes are on a rather strong string of storms working their way across the S Plains yesterday with several reports of hail, especially in W KS. Export Sales tomorrow should be significantly LOWER than those of last, expecting 0 – 7 mill and 4 needed.

US WINTER WHEAT HEADED:   63% TW, 50% LW, 66% LY, and 57% AVG

IL WINTER WHEAT HEADED:    86% TW, 78% LW, 78% LY, and 56% AVG

US G/E CONDITIONS: 51% G/E, 53% LW, and 62% LY

IL WHEAT CONDITIONS: 52% G/E, 60% LW – Another 8% drop!