COMMENTARY 5/16/18

Widespread rain is in the forecast for the next 12 days as several different systems cross the Corn Belt/Plains.  Accums expected are 1.75” to 3.50”.  The Corn Belt will be relatively dry and making planting progress……until the weekend! Barge freight on the Upper Miss is still pretty tight due to high water.  In SA, cool and dry in Argentina and scattered showers will help Brazil’s S corn.

CORN

DOWN 3

Followed the weakness in beans.  Corn IS getting planted.  This am, the Wall St Journal saying odds are not good for a new NAFTA deal before year end.  Pres Trump’s comments weren’t optimistic for a FAST Chinese deal.  The Funds turned sellers, easing their position by some 10k contracts over the course of the day.  Weekly Export Sales will be out Thurs and expected to be 28 -39 mill bu with 11.3 needed.  A private analyst lowered his Brazil est from 81-84 MMT down to 78-81 MMT today and option volatility is 9% lower than the 10 yr avg so it won’t take much to cause GREAT excitement! – there’s no margin for error on the balance sheet.

 

BEANS              

DOWN 19

Funds were sellers in style today ~selling some 15K contracts!  Chinese demand concerns continue shoving us down from of lack of certainty on trade negotiations between the US, China, and NAFTA.  Unless things get smoothed out soon, the implementation of the $50 bill in Chinese tariffs could start by the end of next week.  July fut broke through their 200 day avg and today is the first time they closed BELOW the $10 mark.  The Argentine Peso was slightly lower today, as it continues to hover near all time lows vs the US dollar, providing incentive for the producer there to sell beans in order to offset inflation. Argentine basis values, (which have recently been a $1.00 higher) eased up another 10 cents today as well.  The Brazilian Real/USD was also in retreat, trading to the lowest point in a year.  There are reports of damage and high moisture in Argentine beans.  Tomorrow’s weekly Export Sales are expected to be 11 -22 mill with only 2.3 needed.

 

WHEAT

UNCHANGED

Choppy as we continue to ponder weather issues with big world supply.  Dryness in Russia is getting more attention as well as in Australia.  Timing od forecasted rain is critical as they are starting their planting season.  Here in the US and Canada dryness continues to impact the HRW and HRS crops. There is some rain forecasted for parts of the HRW areas and the Canadian Prairies later this month but time will tell.  Our SRW areas areas are expecting some heavy rains moving through the SE and E. This too will be watched for timing as it could impact quality. Export Sales are expected to  be 0 – 7 mill bu with 15.0 needed.