COMMENTARY 5/16/17

“Let those planters roll, 10-4?” They lightened the forecast percentages a bit, but several rounds of rain COULD be headed our way with reduced totals of 1 – 2” for the NW half of the Belt late week as we get into the weekend. Another 1 – 2″ is expected for the SW, (excluding the Plains).  A seasonable/cool period with chances for light accum are possible for NEXT week, the 22-27th.

CORN

UNCHANGED

Ahhhhh….active planting this afternoon!  For the time being, the radar looks clear across most of the Midwest and forecast has been weaned some, showing some delay on forecasted rain until Fri/Sat nights especially from the SE Corn Belt, into the Delta. Producers very active in IL and the E Belt picking up pace as fields reach “machinability”. SD planted 50% of their crop in just a week according to Planting Progress yest!

Planting Progress:

US YC PLANTED:    71% TW, 47% LW, 73% LY, and 70% AVG

IL YC PLANTED:    75% TW, 65% LW, 82% LY, and 77% AVG

US YC EMERGED:   31%TW,  15% LW,  41% LY, and 36% AVG

IL YC EMERGED:   47% TW, 29% LW,61% LY, and 50% AVG

BEANS

UP 11

More folks are demanding US beans!  The USDA announced another 132k export sale which supported higher futures.  Talk is that there was another 3 or 4 cargoes sold, which should show up in next weeks export sales.  In SA, the Real firmed 0.3% and the producer has his bin doors on lock down. The N/X are inverted after record N and S American crops, but the farmer has money for now to hold the physical crop and limit the carries the market needs to pay. (Just when we were about to believe you weren’t making any money!)  Excellent planting progress was seen yesterday!

 

US YSB PLANTED: 32% TW, 14% LW, 34% TY, and 32% AVG

IL YSB PLANTED:    23% TW, 14% LW, 28% LY, and 31% AVG

US YSB EMERGED:   8%TW,  na % LW,  9% LY, and 9% AVG

IL YSB EMERGED:   6% TW, 1% LW, 9% LY, and 9% AVG

WHEAT

UP 1

Mixed with the weaker US dollar some 700points.  Lots of eyes are on the W KS/CO HRW areas following a snow storm 2 weeks ago …and we have to wait until the combines fire up BEFORE we really know much more about potential damage!

US WINTER WHEAT HEADED:   63% TW, 50% LW, 66% LY, and 57% AVG

IL WINTER WHEAT HEADED:    86% TW, 78% LW, 78% LY, and 56% AVG

US G/E CONDITIONS: 51% G/E, 53% LW, and 62% LY

IL WHEAT CONDITIONS: 52% G/E, 60% LW – Another 8% drop!