COMMENTARY 5/15/18

Widespread, above normal-type rain is likely for the next 10-14 days as several different systems cross the Corn Belt/Plains.  Accums expected are 1.75” to 3.50”.  The N will be relatively dry until the weekend.  In SA, cool and dry in Argentina and scattered showers will help Brazil’s S corn.

CORN

UP 5

Technical buying.  We were 62% planted on Sunday, an increase of 23% and 3 higher than the avg guess. We’re still behind last year by 6 but making impressive improvements. IA, MN and ND improved their shortfalls vs the 5 yr avg while SD still needs to do some big time catching up.  NE IN, SE MI and NW OH too still have areas on the wet side. In SA, S Brazil is still in need of rain for their safrinha corn and may give their genetics a good test with Mar being the sixth wettest in recent history and April/May (so far) the driest in 19 years. The S third of Brazil is the group expecting scattered showers with decent coverage this week.

Yest’s Planting Progress:

US YC PLANTED:   62% TW,  39% LW, 68% LY, and 63% AVG

IL YC PLANTED:   90% TW,  74% LW, 74% LY, and 70% AVG

US YC EMERGED:   28% TW,  8% LW, 29% LY, and 27% AVG

IL YC EMERGED:   63% TW,  14% LW, 44% LY, and 41% AVG

US YC CONDITIONS:   

IL YC CONDITIONS:    87% G/E,   na% LW,  42% LY

BEANS              

UP 1

A stronger dollar US $ and a weaker Real pressured the board early but gained with a solid NOPA crush and meal report. April’s crush was dead on at 161.0 with the avg est in a 155.2 -165.9 range. Oil stocks were big at 2.092 bill, exceeding the avg by 92 mill lbs.  The range on crush was 155.2-165.9) and for oils stocks, 1.900-2.050.  China’s imports for May were est at 9.5 MT, June 9, and July 9.5 MT. China imported 6.92 million tons in April.  Cordonnier lowered Argentina’s Prod est 1 MMT to 37 leaving Brazil at 116.  Brazil’s export commitments are 41.7 million tons, 3.3 million above last week, and a record high for this time of year.  Bean planting here in the US (especially IL) is way ahead of normal at 35% complete, 9 ahead of average, 6 ahead of last year, and 5 higher than the average guess.  An acreage survey by Informa shows bean acreage up 430,000 from UDSDA’s March estimate to 89.412 mill acres.

Planting Progress:

US YSB PLANTED:   35% TW,  15% LW, 29% LY, and 26% AVG

IL YSB PLANTED:   66% TW,  29% LW, 22% LY, and 24% AVG

US YSB EMERGED:   10% TW,  na % LW, 7% LY, and 6% AVG

IL YSB EMERGED:   24% TW,  1% LW, 5% LY, and 6% AVG

 

WHEAT

UP 2

Crop ratings were better than expected, which caused softness early this am.  Winter wheat conditions improved 2 to 36%, 15 points less than last year and 8 points below average.  The trade HAD been expecting ratings to be steady.  Spring wheat planting improved from 28% to 58% but still behind both last year and the average.  Still more progress needs to be made!

Planting Progress:

US WINTER WHEAT CONDITIONS:   36% TW,  34% LW, and 51% LY

IL WINTER WHEAT CONDITIONS:    63% TW,  53% LW, and 52% LY

US WINTER WHEAT HEADED:     45% TW,  33% LW, 61% LY, and 53% AVG

IL WINTER WHEAT HEADED:    48% TW,  14% LW, 85% LY, and 51% AVG

US SPRING WHEAT PLANTED:   58% TW, 30% LW, 75% LY, and 67% AVG