COMMENTARY 5/15/14 **DELIVERY RESTRICTIONS**

WHAT YOU SHOULD DO BEFORE PLANTING:

WE STRONGLY RECOMMEND that producers verify that their seed varieties ARE approved for MAJOR EXPORT MARKETS.  The STL River markets ARE planning to test loads delivered.  They RESERVE the right to reject loads with unapproved traits.  If you have seed that is NOT APPROVED FOR MAJOR EXPORT MARKETS, we encourage you to check with your seed representative to exchange for seed that IS APPROVED for GLOBAL USE.

**ADDITIONAL DELIVERY RESTRICTIONS!**

BUNGE will not accept delivery of produced from the following seed:

CORN: Agrisure Viptera MIR 162 (Syngenta), Bayer/Genective -Event VCO-01981-5, Agrisure Duracade – Event 5307 (Syngenta), Stine Maize – Event HCEM485, DuPont/Pioneer – Event 4114-3, Monsanto – MON 87427

SOYBEAN: Vistive Gold – MON 87705 (Monsanto), Soymega – MON 87769 (Monsanto), Plenish (DuPont/Pioneer), Bayer – Event FG72

WHAT YOU SHOULD KNOW: 

China’s rejections of a banned variety of genetically modified U.S. corn have now cost the U.S. agriculture industry up to $2.9 billion, a grain group said, on losses from trade disruptions. The National Grain and Feed Association (NGFA) estimated in a report, that rejections of shipments containing Syngenta AG’s Agrisure Viptera corn resulted in losses of at least $1 billion.  This is based on economic analysis that included data supplied by top global grain exporters. The largest estimates of losses are based on the loss in corn price, which  translated to producer losses. – JSA

 

ATTN SPECIALTY CORN GROWERS:

Ask your seed company what/how they are testing the NGMO purity on the seed you are going to plant.  Ensure what they are selling you IS pure (by lab testing your seed) BEFORE planting .  There are some contaminated seed issues out there.

 

COMMENTARY

CORN

DOWN 11    

St Louis river levels rising  at +17.85 ft today and forecast to be 20.2 by 5/20.

Weather forecast looks decent for next week for much of the corn belt.  Export Sales were solid at 13.5.  Egypt, Japan, and Mexico were significant buyers.  Valero is reported to be preparing to re-open recently acquired Mt Vernon, IN ethanol plant.

Widespread light rain over the corn belt for the next several days with cooler temps.  Another great week of Export Inspections at 47.2 ve 31 – 59 expected.  Last Monday’s Planting progress came in at 59% THIS WEEK, 29% LAST WEEK, compared to 26% LAST YEAR AND 58% 5 YR AVG.  Emergence was 18%.

Our Export pace SHOULD be good through July.  Friday, USDA added 150 million bushels to their previous export estimate.  This drop confirmed ideas that the USDA’s numbers from previous months were indeed too low.  The decline in old crop ending stocks, from 1.331 billion down to 1.146 was expected.  The with the strong ethanol production pace, they added 50 million to the ethanol grind. The trade was not expecting any changes until after the EPA mandate revision in June. A minor 15 million bushel revision lower was made to “other”.

 

BEANS

OLD UP 16   NEW DOWN 5

Old Crop volatility!  Export Sales  were 2.7 and was above expectations of -4 to +2.  Mexico and Japan were the significant buyers.  Odd isn’t it?  South American beans are coming UP the MISS?  We may still need MORE SA beans.  A larger South American crop:  Rosario boosts Argentina’s bean crop to 55.7 with harvest pace lagging 68% which is 12 %behind their 3 yr avg.  ABIOVE increases 400 K to 86.5, Celeres up 1.3 to 86.2, Cordonnier maintains Brazil at 86.5.  Export Inspections were better than expected Monday  at 8.8 vs expectations of 4 – 8 expected.  Monday’s Planting Progress came in at 20% THIS WEEK, 5% LAST WEEK, vs 5% LAST YEAR, AND 21% 5 YR AVG.

Friday’s USDA report had 13/14 C/O at 130 million, down 5  from the March forecast.  USDA raised their 2013/14 soybean imports 25, from 65 million bushels to 90 million bushels! They raised their crush forecast 10 million bushels from 1.685 bill to 1.695. Exports were raised from 1.580 to 1.600 billion.  The 14/15 production is 3.635 billion,  exports are  1.625 billion, residual use was 18 million, and crush was estimated at  1.715 billion.

 

 

WHEAT

DOWN 12

Rain continues to pressure.   Weather in the NW is becoming conducive for the planting of the spring wheat crop.  Export Sales were just 2.0 for old crop and 7.2 for new crop.  The US drought Monitor sees 2.8% of KS crop in exceptional drought, which is up another 1%.  European wheat exports should climb to a record level as demand grows from N Africa, Iran, and Turkey.   Monday’s Export Inspections were 22.9 vs expectations of 19 – 23 and 32.2 per week needed.   Friday, the USDA released its first winter wheat production estimate and indicated a crop of 1.403 billion bushels as of May 1. Kansas will have a crop of 260 million bushels, which was 18% below last year’s 319 million bushels.  USDA raised their 2013/14 wheat import forecast from 165 million bus to 175 . The export forecast was raised 10 million bushels from 1.175 to 1.185 billion. Their 2013/14 wheat C/O was unchanged at 583 million.  Keep an eye peeled on the Black Sea region as turmoil heats up with Ukraine and Russia.

ESTL CITY ORDINANCE MAX LOAD WEIGHT 10,000 lbs ~POSTPONED UNIL APRIL 30th.  ~Still reportedly “open for business as usual”