COMMENTARY 5/14/18

Widespread, above normal-type rain is likely for the next 10-14 days as several different systems cross the Corn Belt/Plains.  High accums expected are 1.75” to 3.50”.  The N will be relatively dry until the weekend.  In SA, cool and dry in Argentina and scattered showers should aid Brazil’s yc.

 

CORN

UNCHANGED

Struggled despite significantly higher ysb’s.  Export Inspections were 61.2, 2 mill below the avg guess and vs expectations of 55-71 hut a hearty 9 mill MORE than the 54 needed per week!  Big takers were the Middle East, N Africa, and SE Asia.  This afternoon, planting progress was thought to be 55% complete, but it APPEARS we blew that out of the water!  See actuals below.  Nationwide we have caught up, IL is 20% ahead of normal, and 20% ahead emerged. China has diverted a milo vessel to Canada.  The USDA is forecasting a nearly 9 MMT increase in China’s Prod, to 225 MMT million. China’s CASDE (the equivalent of our USDA) is actually predicting a 6.4 MMT DECLINE….. so keep your eye on how this develops!

Planting Progress:

US YC PLANTED:   62% TW,  39% LW, 68% LY, and 63% AVG

IL YC PLANTED:   90% TW,  74% LW, 74% LY, and 70% AVG

US YC EMERGED:   28% TW,  8% LW, 29% LY, and 27% AVG

IL YC EMERGED:   63% TW,  14% LW, 44% LY, and 41% AVG

US YC CONDITIONS:   

IL YC CONDITIONS:    87% G/E,   na% LW,  42% LY

BEANS              

UP 14

Strong with BIG planting!   There was talk of some US/China concessions and reports of reduced Argentine meal exports.  Export Inspections were 25.3 vs expectations of 17 -24 mill.  Big takers were Egypt, China, and the EU.  Planting progress was ABOVE expectations and IL is 42 AHEAD of normal.  Just MN and SD the only states more than 10% behind normal, so progress was made everywhere!  See actuals below.  The Real continues to weaken in Brazil keeping basis values there soft. NOPA Crush will be out tomorrow with the avg est at  160.9 vs 139.1 last year. With rumors of Chinese concessions, spreads have been narrowing.

Planting Progress:

US YSB PLANTED:   35% TW,  15% LW, 29% LY, and 26% AVG

IL YSB PLANTED:   66% TW,  29% LW, 22% LY, and 24% AVG

US YSB EMERGED:   10% TW,  na % LW, 7% LY, and 6% AVG

IL YSB EMERGED:   24% TW,  1% LW, 5% LY, and 6% AVG

 

WHEAT

DOWN 7

Weaker to start the week off as beneficial rains are in the forecast for the US and abroad. Black Sea wheat is still the favorite origin of choice. Export Inspections of 14.9 mill bu were mid range of the 9 – 18 mill bu expectations with 25.9 still needed per week. Dryness in S Russia and areas in Ukraine are causing some concerns for spring wheat there. Forecasts are improving there. There are fresh rumors of up to 7 vessels of Russian wheat headed towards Mexico and a weak Ruble does help support this notion.  Decent progress was made this afternoon, especially with IL conditions.  US spring wheat IS getting planted, finally!  See actuals below!

 

Planting Progress:

US WINTER WHEAT CONDITIONS:   36% TW,  34% LW, and 51% LY

IL WINTER WHEAT CONDITIONS:    63% TW,  53% LW, and 52% LY

US WINTER WHEAT HEADED:     45% TW,  33% LW, 61% LY, and 53% AVG

IL WINTER WHEAT HEADED:    48% TW,  14% LW, 85% LY, and 51% AVG

US SPRING WHEAT PLANTED:   58% TW, 30% LW, 75% LY, and 67% AVG