COMMENTARY 5/1/18

Dry in the US through tomorrow which should allow for some decent planting while there are a few showers, less significant expected in the N HRW areas and in the Plains.  In SA, the droughty conditions grow, stretching into mid-May for Brazil’s second-crop corn area.

CORN

UP 5

Followed wheat up again today! The slow pace of US planting, particularly MN and both of the Dakotas, and dryness in Brazil support.  Nearby freight locally continues to ease as we have now switched from May fut to the July.  Our US crop is only 17% planted, up 12 from last week but still trailing both last year’s 32% and the 5 yr avg of 27%.  That being said, the 3 big corn states, IA, IL, and NE have been planting in style for 7 days now. Many there should be getting done planting by the rain expected Thur. Other areas in the NW corn belt are just now  starting to dry out (like us) have a drier outlook for the next couple weeks. In SA, due to dryness, Cordonnier lowered his Brazil crop estimate 1 MMT to 86 as forecaster continue to keep rain chances at arms length. Argentina’s est was unchanged this week at 32 with a chance for showers.  Their overall crops may be 75 mill smaller than last year (combined).

Planting Progress (or lack thereof):

US YC PLANTED:   17% TW,  5% LW, 32% LY, and 27% AVG

IL YC PLANTED:   32% TW,  4% LW, 59% LY, and 40% AVG

US YC EMERGED:   3% TW,  0% LW, 8% LY, and 6% AVG

IL YC EMERGED:   0% TW,  0% LW, 18% LY, and 10% AVG

BEANS              

UP 5

Weak early as a weaker Real pressured the complex but supported later by meal demands as SA beans get gobbled up by the world market.  Crush margins have been growing as meal rallies increase the value of beans (if you’ve got them). Planting progress here is decent at 5% and even with the 5 yr but still 4 behind this same time last year.  NASS March crush is expected to be out today and expected to be up 17-18 mill bu from last month at 180 and compares to 161 LAST Mar (2017).  Due to additional crushing, bean oil stocks expected to rise from 2.39 bill last month to 2.65.  In SA, Cordonnier raised his Brazil crop est 1 MMT to 116 due to strong yield reports from the NE. Argentina was left unchanged at 39.

Planting Progress:

US YSB PLANTED:   5% TW,  2% LW, 9% LY, and 5% AVG

IL YSB PLANTED:   7% TW,  0% LW, 12% LY, and 5% AVG

 

WHEAT

UP 19

The facts are finally coming in and the KS wheat tour continues to disappoint.  North Central yields are being estimated at 34.2 bpa, down 20% from 43 bpa last year, significantly worse than expected.  Yest, US winter wheat was rated 33% G/E, only up 2 from last week and still behind 54% last year and 45% avg so still have room to improve.  Spring wheat in the N is still WAY behind normal compared to normally being in the 30% arena.

Planting Progress:

US WINTER WHEAT CONDITIONS:   33% TW,  31% LW, and 54% LY

IL WINTER WHEAT CONDITIONS:    59% TW,  56% LW, and 72% LY

US WINTER WHEAT HEADED:     19% TW,  13% LW, 41% LY, and 30% AVG

IL WINTER WHEAT HEADED:    5% TW,  4% LW, 61% LY, and 18% AVG

US SPRING WHEAT PLANTED:   10% TW, 3% LW, 30% LY, and 36% AVG