COMMENTARY 5/11/18

Rather unstable for the Central US the next 10 days with potential for some widespread accum of 1”- 3” mainly focused on the NE Corn Belt. Most areas look to stay relatively dry for 5 to 7 days.

CORN

DOWN 5

Spill over pressure from beans.  On Mon, we’re expecting corn to be 55% planted which would still be 13 behind last year and 8 below avg. There are still some concerns over potential for the N acres to NOT get planted to corn, but will have to wait and see.  China’s CASDE ests a 209.5 MMT crop for 18/19 (USDA at 225).  Keep in mind that the USDA has China’s ending stocks expected to drop 19 MMT or 24% for next year. The world’s stocks/use ratio is also expected to fall 3% to 13.5% in 18/19.  If so, it will be the smallest cushion in over 20 years!  Won’t take much to get a weather issue going.  With the ongoing milo saga, another six more cargoes of milo originally headed to China have been switched to Japan and S Korea.  In SA, AgroConsult is forecasting a 12% drop (from last year) for Brazil’s safrinha crop to 60.2 MMT.

Bloomberg Trader Bias: (pre report): Bullish, 72% TW (41% LW), Bearish 22% (41% LW), Neutral 6% (18%LW)

BEANS              

DOWN 18

Additional weakness in the Real is giving Brazil’s producers a reason hang on and the USDA’s China demand assumptions are in question.  China continues to be the big what if for 18/19.  The USDA expects bean imports to rise 6 MMT to 103.  There’s lots of talk about a DECLINE in imports for the coming year as demand slows.  Brazil’s marketing director says farmers are 70% sold on old crop and 15% on new crop beans but still hesitant to sell beans due to increased risk of further Real deprecation. On Mon, planting progress is thought to be 30% complete.  If so, it will be  one ahead of last year and 4 ahead of the 5 yr.  IL should be WAY above normal.

Bloomberg Trader Bias: Bullish 0% TW (18% LW), Bearish 67% (53% LW), Neutral 33% (29% LW)

 

WHEAT

DOWN 8

Weaker despite weather issues and anticipation now for a 15% smaller Russian crop.  Exports there should still be big.  The dry areas from S Australia into Victoria and the S NSW is forecast to receive from ½” – 1 ½” late next week.  Rosario has Argentina’s planted area up 5% to 5.7 mill hectares while the USDA is expecting a 7% increase to 6 mill.

Bloomberg Trader Bias:  Bullish 24 TW (31% LW), Bearish 47% TW (38% LW), Neutral 29% (31% LW)