COMMENTARY 5/10/18

Still watching the weather!  There’s no shortage of fieldwork getting done or already done.  Most forecasts look similar to yest.

CORN

DOWN 1

Planting progress continues.  As for the S/D Report, the Old Crop carryout  was left unchanged at 2.182. New crop carry out was 1.682 vs 2.272 last report and in a range of 1.411-1.907.  Production was mostly unchanged at 14.040. Yield was left alone at 174bpa.  For SA’s est, CONAB raised their estimate on early crop, raising the total corn to 89.2 MMT from 88.6 MMT.  The USDA est was 87 MMT, both numbers are well below last year’s 97.8 MMT. Weekly Export Sales were just barely below the low end but WAY above the needed per week at 27.4 vs expectations of 28 – 39 mill bu with only a mere 12.1 needed.  Oh, the avg est corn price? $3.80.  Makes new crop (and old crop) STILL look good!

BEANS              

UP 5

Bullish!  But the surprises (good ones) appeared to be already in the market, noted by the Funds huge long position.  Old Crop carry out was 20 mill lower than last report at 530 mill bu vs the best guess at 546 in a 495 -618 range. New Crop carry out was 415 mill bu vs guessed at 533 in a 342-744 range and compares to 460 last report.  Production was down slightly at 4.280 vs last report of 4.320.  Yields were unchanged at 48.5 bpa.  The USDA mimicked CONAB’s Brazil Production est at 117 mill bu, up 2 from the April est. The Argentine Production was 39 MMT, only down 1 from the April est of 40.0 MMT. World production was a skimpy 336.7 MMT, compared to last year’s 350.3 MMT!  All eyes turn to China to see what they do now through the summer.  Weekly Export Sales were at the low end at 13.0 vs expectations of 11 – 22 mill bu with only 2.9 needed per week.

 

WHEAT

DOWN 4

Neutral with negligible changes for ALL wheat on today’s S/D.  Forecasts are still offering hope for rain into next week for the HRW regions and WILL be needed to hit USDA’s yield est of 48.1 bpa. Both old/new crop carryouts were little changed at 1.070 and 0.955 mill with only minor changes in Production at 1.821.  Weekly Export Sales were puny 1.3 vs expectations of 0 – 13 mill bu with only 12.3 needed per week, but that’s not REAL surprising with all the cheap world competition out there.