COMMENTARY 4/9/18

So far we are setting the stage for one of the coldest Aprils since 1895 for the Corn Belt and THE coldest since 1983.  Rains and snows also continue in the Delta, Corn Belt, Delta, and N Plains through Wed, then warming into the weekend. The drought in the S Plains doesn’t get any reprieve.  In SA, a significant drying out is underway for most of the double crop corn in Brazil while rain continues for Argentina.

CORN

UP 2

Coupled with cool, damp planting conditions, hearty Export Inspections likely caused the Funds to buy some 8k contracts today.  Inspections were a whopping 76.3 mill!!  – that’s WAY above the 45 – 53 mill bu expectations with 21 mill going to Japan, 15 mill to Mexico, and good volume to SE Asia and the Middle East.  Milo Inspections too were big at 9.7 mill vs the 4 per week needed.  Estimates for Tue’s WASDE report shows Reuter’s US stocks increasing 62 mill from Mar report to 2.189 billion in a 2.067-2.265 bill bu range and SA’s Prod est has Argentina down 2.3MMT to 33.7 in a 32-36MMT range.  Brazil is thought to decrease 1.8 MMT at 92.7 in a range of 86.5 – 96.0.  Brazil’s summer crop is est to be 60% harvested and compares to 51% last week, 70% last year, and 67% average.

 

BEANS              

UP 13

Hot diggity-bean demand!  More beans sales announced of 232K MT to unknown for 17/18 this am.  Export Inspections were another story at  just 13.7 mill vs expectations of 17 – 28 mill.  China only amounted to 2.8 mill of that total.  Today was China’s first day back after their 3 day holiday.  Media was expecting to see more reciprocal “tariffing” first thing this am.  Looks like Funds showed up to buy some 10k contracts.  The SA farmer is selling fairly aggressively in Brazil.  Safras says the crop is 52% sold, up from 46% last year,  but slightly below the 55% average.  AgRural has Brazil harvest 77% complete, up from 71% a week ago, but still 5 behind last year.  Estimates for tomorrow’s SA Prod, Argentina down 4.3 MMT to 42.7 in a range of  40.5-46.0. Brazil Prod up 2.3 MMT to 115.3 in a range of  113.3-117.0.


Wheat

UP 18

Finally a decent weather-related market!  No significant rain in the Plains’ forecast and Spring wheat isn’t getting planted any faster. The HRS belt did receive more snow over the weekend. Export Inspections were 15.8 mill, above the 8-15 mill expectation and with 22 per week needed.  According to Rosario, Argentina rains are helping to encourage producers there into planting up to 5.4 mill hectares than they did last year.  Reuter’s survey for tomorrow’s report has US stocks up 2 mill from Mar at 1.036 bill in a 989 to 1.060 bill bu range.

US WINTER WHEAT CONDITIONS:   30% G/E TW   46% LW & 53% LY