COMMENTARY 4/5/18

Cold/wet weather in the Corn Belt and N Plains at least until we get into next week. The W Plains are still expected to be drier. And the Delta gets a chance to dry out NEXT week. The Gulf continues to work through logistic issues from winter, high water, low water, ice, lock closures, and tow size limitations.  Current conditions and rains have river levels there high, adding to the congestion.  There are still a month’s worth of loaded barges waiting in the Gulf to be off loaded and there ARE vessels waiting there to be loaded.  Things ARE improving!  Basis levels continue to respond favorably.  -and Lake Pepin supposed to see an ice breaker go thru yet this week so the Upper Miss is almost ready to start loading barges!

In SA, the market is watching drying conditions in S Brazil’s double-crop corn areas.  Argentina, on the other hand is expecting heavy accums over the next 7-10 days that should end their droughti-ness and improve soil moist for wheat sowing, but at the same time hamper yc and ysb harvest.

With the passage of the omnibus spending bill, the 199A “Grain Glitch” was approved by Senate and signed by Pres Trump.  Producers can retroactively sell grain to private companies without a 20% reward to cooperatives.  THANKS for your support and positive attitudes as our elected officials sorted through the discourse!  

CORN

UP 8

Looks like we recovered from yesterday’s trade war losses with support help from less than favorable planting weather. There is a LOT of diplomatic talking to be done. Thurs’s Export Sales were 35.4, slightly below expectations of 39 – 51 mill with 17.2 needed per week.

 

BEANS              

UP 16

It didn’t take long to shake off yesterday’s fears!  The US is THE cheapest source of beans in the world and crush margins continue to be big.  Basis values yesterday rallied 75 cents and today promptly dropped 45 cents.  With those kind of surges, US beans could work right into Brazil.  …..and Export Sales were hearty at 41.6 <– (that IS a record) vs expectations of  22-33 expected and only 7.9 needed per week.  Of that total, 22 went to Unknown and 5 mill to China with decent interest also from SE Asia and Europe.  Sales of meal were enormous (got to feed them hogs)(think there is a song about that?!) at 414K MT vs expectations of 150 -300 and 82 needed per week.  The big buyer was the Philippines at 91 K MT.  Bean oil was also bigger at 43.5 vs expectations of 10-35.  Interesting note:  -> Even though bean meal is NOT included in China’s NEW reciprocal trade items, they ALREADY have a 30% import tariff on US meal and they consistently import less than 100 K MT/yr.  This has been going on since 2011, …..seven years!  Who was the US president then?

 

Wheat

UP 9

Volatility galore!  Dry weather conditions continue to support. Forecasts continue for W KS and TX/OK panhandles to continue to be dry and there is still potential for freezing temps to do damage up on the HRW this weekend.  HRS acres are expected to keep dropping.  Beans in the Dakotas make the most sense to plant with more snow is in the cards for this weekend.  Old crop Export Sales were “spindly” at just 4.0 vs expectations of 7 -18 and 9.7 needed per week.  New crop was 7.4 vs expectations of 2 – 7 mill bu.  In Feb, the US exported some 52 mill bu of wheat.  That compares with 67 in Jan and 80 mill total for all of 2017!