COMMENTARY 4/30/18

Dry in the US for the next several days which should allow for some decent planting while there are a few showers, less significant expected in the N HRW areas and in the Plains.  The Miss still has some areas near flood stage, but in other areas, freight continues to ease. In SA, the droughty conditions grow, stretching into mid-May for Brazil’s second-crop corn area.

CORN

UP 2

Trades tensions between us and China appear to be beginning to diminish while Brazil’s safrinha crop continues to be dry, and led higher by wheat. Funds were buyers of some 10k contracts.  Export Inspections were decent at  57.7 vs expectations of 39-71 with 58.5 needed per week.  Hearty quantities were loaded by several W Hemispheres as well as Mexico and Japan.  US planting  is still behind but DID make some good progress.  The next three days SHOULD help further our position until rain forecast for Thurs arrive. Today’s expectations was thought to be 18-20%. See actuals below!

Planting Progress:

US YC PLANTED:   17% TW,  5% LW, 32% LY, and 27% AVG

IL YC PLANTED:   32% TW,  4% LW, 59% LY, and 40% AVG

US YC EMERGED:   3% TW,  0% LW, 8% LY, and 6% AVG

IL YC EMERGED:   0% TW,  0% LW, 18% LY, and 10% AVG

 

BEANS              

DOWN 8

What a day.  Stronger EARLY as Argentina bought additional new crop, China DID take 9 mill from the US in Exports, and Argentine economic uncertainties grow. But, Funds were sellers of some 5k contracts.  Meal too had a drastic turnaround with July Meal Fut hitting NEW lifetime of highs at $403, then collapsing to close $1.50 lower for the day. Argentina bought 120KMT for 18/19, announced this am.  Export Inspections were above thoughts at 25.0 and vs expectations of 13 – 24 mill with 25.9 needed per week.  Unlike corn, bean planting isn’t behind and came in right with the avg, but some hoped it would be as high as 6-7% complete.  IL was actually ahead!  Guess the newest fad of planting beans early has taken hold of many.  See actuals below.  According to Oil World, China will need a minimum of 20-22 MMT of US beans AFTER sucking all amounts out of Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay.  Since getting “miffed” at the US, they have been tapping into Canada, but, SO FAR, from Aug through Mar, they’ve only taken 1.3 MMT vs 1.76 last year.

Planting Progress:

US YSB PLANTED:   5% TW,  2% LW, 9% LY, and 5% AVG

IL YSB PLANTED:   7% TW,  0% LW, 12% LY, and 5% AVG

 

WHEAT

UP 12

Leaded for the day and strong going into the close due to weather issues!  Conditions still wane all across the US.  E OK is now SO dry that pasture fires the size of small states are an increasing issue. Export Inspections were towards the low end of expectations at 13.8 vs 11-22 thoughts and 24.1 needed per week. Spring wheat planting did make SOME progress, but still WAY behind.  Ratings improved slightly, but leave MUCH to be desired.  Crop scout tours started in KS last week and insist that the crop there is weak but not as bad off as others have been letting on.

Planting Progress:

US WINTER WHEAT CONDITIONS:   33% TW,  31% LW, and 54% LY

IL WINTER WHEAT CONDITIONS:    59% TW,  56% LW, and 72% LY

US WINTER WHEAT HEADED:     19% TW,  13% LW, 41% LY, and 30% AVG

IL WINTER WHEAT HEADED:    5% TW,  4% LW, 61% LY, and 18% AVG

US SPRING WHEAT PLANTED:   10% TW, 3% LW, 30% LY, and 36% AVG