COMMENTARY 4/30/14

WHAT YOU SHOULD DO BEFORE PLANTING:

– Ask how you can help keep US Ag Exports competitive!  WE STRONGLY RECOMMEND that producers verify that their seed varieties ARE approved for MAJOR EXPORT MARKETS.  The STL River markets ARE planning to test loads delivered.  They RESERVE the right to reject loads with unapproved traits.  If you have seed that is NOT APPROVED FOR MAJOR EXPORT MARKETS, we encourage you to check with your seed representative to exchange for seed that IS APPROVED for GLOBAL USE.

WHAT YOU SHOULD KNOW: 

China’s rejections of a banned variety of genetically modified U.S. corn have now cost the U.S. agriculture industry up to $2.9 billion, a grain group said, on losses from trade disruptions. The National Grain and Feed Association (NGFA) estimated in a report, that rejections of shipments containing Syngenta AG’s Agrisure Viptera corn resulted in losses of at least $1 billion.  This is based on economic analysis that included data supplied by top global grain exporters. The largest estimates of losses are based on the loss in corn price, which  translated to producer losses. – JSA

 

SPECIALTY CORN GROWERS:

Ask your seed company what/how they are testing the NGMO purity on the seed you are going to plant.  Ensure what they are selling you IS pure (by lab testing your seed) BEFORE planting .  There are some contaminated seed issues out there.

 

COMMENTARY

CORN

DOWN 2

St Louis river levels rising at +17.6 ft today and forecast to be 15.8 by 5/5.

Funds sold 4,000 contracts today (20 million bu) taking a softer note.   Is our C/O shrinking with all the strong Export Sales?  Ukraine corn shipments are slowing.    Russian farmers are planting aggressively at 46 % planted.  Trade feels as if we should be more planted than what we are, although not terribly behind avg.  US corn plantings received a 19% vs 6% LW, and 8% AVG.   IL by itself  is 32% planted vs 5% LW’ 1% LY and 33% AVG.  IN is only 8% planted despite being very dry.  Iowa was only 15% vs 33% AVG.    French corn plantings are 68% planted. Ukraine corn plantings reaches 23%, up 10% from last week.  Temps are  in to the mid 60’s to 70’s with wind to help dry things back out and get the planters rolling after the weekend and a 5 day forecast that gets temps back up to the 80’s, but looks like it will take a week without additional rain.

This years Export program MAY exceed  1.8 BILLION.  China is back in buying US milo….(as there is no chance that it is genetically modified).   China may be developing a “black list” of ddgs suppliers who wouldn’t be able to discharge vessels for unloading to China.  Thus far, China has rejected 1.12 mmt of corn and products this year.

Last week, Ukraine shut off the water to 300,000 acres of Crimea farm ground and now face drought.  Ukraine’s troubles with Russia should help push corn demand to the US as customers are more guaranteed the vessels will load and ship.    France’s parliament votes to BAN growing ALL VARIETIES of genetically modified corn.  Chinese weather watchers have their eye on possible El Nino conditions causing a cooler summer, which in the past has caused significant freeze damage to both corn and soybean crops.

 

BEANS

OLD UP 7     NEW DOWN 1

Funds were sellers today of 3,000 contracts (15 million bu) most likely in the July futures.  Tight supplies of old crop remain the focus.   Export Sales will be out tomorrow.  US beans plantings were 3% vs expectations to be 2 – 4% complete.  Beans and meal complex led everything higher as old crop values/ and crush imports need to be raised higher to meet demand.  South American vessels make their way to the US Coasts to be unloaded.  China reported to be auctioning off 3 mmt of reserve bean stocks during the first week in May.

Imports are revealing just how tight the old crop really is and/or old beans were not high priced enough over the course of the season, to ration demand.  The “Brazillian Bean Armada” are headed for the US.  Eight to ten have already been diverted FROM China this week to other destinations.  Thirty-five  to forty more vessels are loaded/loading  and awaiting in Brazil waters looking for a home destination.   China’s Ministry  of Commerce is expecting 6.9mmt of bean imports into China, which is 3 mmt MORE than last year.  Safras has Brazil harvest at 94%,  average.   Chinese hog prices are at a 4 year low.  This curtails soybean meal demand (see more details below).  Letters of credit for soybean import are seeing increases of collateral from 10 to 30%

Shangai JC indicates Chinese vessel defaults have grown now to as much as 23 vessels that have either been delayed or defaulted on – and counting due to Chinese defaults.  Chinese have now cancelled or defaulted on up to  2 MILLION mt of US and Brazilian beans.    This is the biggest default in 10 years.  From Reuters, a string of defaults on loans, bonds, and shadowy banking highlights the high credit risk of doing business with China and are likely fueled by their slowing economy.   Chinese crushers are rumored to be aggressive competition into the SE Asian meal market (wonder why they are selling meal?).   Also from China, via Reuters, Chinese officials believe that the severe issue of bird flu could lower their third quarter bean demand by 18% MORE than it did last year.  With the negative crush margins, Chinese bean crushers are losing between $80 – 100 per ton currently crushing beans for meal.

 

WHEAT

Up 5

Yield surveys in Ks were disappointing and weekend temps for the Plains are in the low 90’s.  Dryness in the Southern Plains and HRW growing areas of Western OK and Southwestern Kansas. The Kansas  G/E dropped from 24% to 21% and OK G/E dropped to 11%.  Keep an eye on the Black Sea region as turmoil heats up with Ukraine and Russia.   Our winter wheat conditions were expected to be slightly better from rains late last week in very dry Plains.  As a whole, the US crop was 33% G/E, 34% LW and 33% LY.   France’s Good/Excellent wheat is holding steady at 75%, 9% better than last year.  The Ukraine has shipped 10 mbu of wheat, totaling 8.2 million.  The USDA is expecting 9.5 million.

ESTL CITY ORDINANCE MAX LOAD WEIGHT 10,000 lbs ~POSTPONED UNIL APRIL 30th.  ~Still reportedly “open for business as usual”