COMMENTARY 4/29/16

“The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent” –  John Maynard Keynes

Widespread rain affects the Plains, Corn Belt, and Delta today and tomorrow.   Temps should stay cool into midweek then followed by a warming across the Plains.  The warming takes place in advance of a larger system that could bring rain to the Plains NEXT weekend (May 7-8)

St Louis river level ~RISING ~ at 14.3′ and forecast 20.4′ by 5/4.  

CORN

OLD ~UNCHANGE      NEW ~UNCHANGED                         (Now using July Futures)

The morning started firm as the USDA announced a 100,640 MT (3.9 mill bu) sale for delivery to Japan during the 15/16 marketing year.  The the South American crop prospects and anticipation of our US planting progress on Mon took over. The est is expected to be 45-50% complete compared to 45% last year and the 5-year average of 30%.  There is more talk about S Brazil safrinha corn being vulnerable to cooler than normal temps in May, due to delayed development and result of late bean harvest.  In SA,  AGR lowered their 15/16 Brazil forecast to 79.6 mmt, down -5.5 mmt from the previous outlook in March. AGR also pegged the 15/16 second season crop at 52.1 mmt compared to their previous outlook at 57.6 mmt as hot and dry weather weighs on the size of the crop.

Last Monday’s

US PLANTING PROGRESS 30% THIS WEEK, 13% LAST WEEK, 16% LAST YEAR, and 16% AVG

IL PLANTING PROGRESS 42% THIS WEEK, 12% LAST WEEK, 26% LAST YEAR, and 25% AVG

 

BEANS     

OLD~ UP 2       NEW~ DOWN 1                    (Now using July Futures)

Choppy with old crop showing minor gains and new crop posting small losses. Monday’s US planting progress est is thought to be around 8-13% compared to 10% last year and the 5 yr average of 7%.  Drier conditions are in store for Argentina and likely to favor harvest progress, although temps are forecast to be cool.  Severe cold weather could have some areas drop down to freezing.  It is not expected to get cold enough to cause pods to burst, but it’s not the most ideal way for them to dry out after having harvest slowed for more than 20 days.  Harvest is only at 24% vs 62% last year. Safras lowered the Brazil crop est by 2.1 mmt to 98.5 mmt.

 

WHEAT          

UP 3                                            (Now using July Futures)

Mixed.  Widespread rain is expected across US HRW areas with SRW to see moisture this weekend, fueling ideas of an additional improvement in the Good/Excellent crop ratings of 1-2% on Monday.  Dry weather in the N Plains should accelerate planting progress.