COMMENTARY 4/28/17

The heavy deluge of rain promised has finally reached us!  This IS causing closures starting today!  Rain likely through Sun with some forecasts calling for total accum of 5-8 “.

 St Louis river level RISING~ at 34.4′ and forecast to be –>40.1 by 5/3. 

(Action Stage is 28.0′) (Minor flood stage is 30.0′) (MAJOR FLOOD STAGE 40.0)

CORN

DOWN 4

Defensive most of the day despite the cold/wet weather slowing planting.  On Mon, our Planting Progress is expected to be 35-40%, with the 5 year avg at 42%.  Heavy rains for the Central Corn Belt promise to set back planting and could cause some replant.

 

BEANS

DOWN 1

We’ll have to wait till next week to see how well we dry out from this weekend.  Mon’s Planting Progress is thought to be 11%, 4 ahead of both last year and the 5 year. The Argentine crop is now 32% harvested and Brazil producers are still holding tight with their huge crop. Our US beans are still competitive with SA’s now through at least July.  Barge freight moved 10% higher this afternoon as turn times are being slowed, empties become a commodity, and barges get tied off to prepare for moderate flood stage.

WHEAT

UP 5

Freeze damage in parts of KS, NE, and CO from Wed night concerned  the market. There is more 32 degree temps in the forecast too for this weekend with some areas receiving up to a foot of snow. Some poor fields may get torn up and replanted to corn.  There wasn’t much HRS planting progress from the 22% last Mon and ND is only 9%. More of these acres could be switched to beans if the weather dictates.