COMMENTARY 4/27/18

Finally, we turn to several days extended for some decent planting weather!  Still cool here through Sun, but then watch out for three days above 75 and dare we suggest the possibility for 80?!  Then, the Corn Belt gets a chance of showers Tues – Fri. Quick-ship premiums disappeared fast but CAN return fast as well.  Don’t be late with your April corn contracts!  In SA, Brazil’s double crop corn is getting a taste of the dry season early and at least 10 more days before a chance for rain.

CORN

UP 3

Nudged higher from strength in ysb’s and continued dryness for some Brazil’s safrinha corn.  US planting progress is expected to do some CATCHING up.  Last week was just 5% complete vs 32% last year, 27% avg, and we’re HOPING to come in at 18-20% come Mon.  Argentina harvest progress only improved 1% this week to 31% complete and 4% above average.  Their crop est is hanging steady at 32 MMT.  Japan, Vietnam, and Saudi Arabia continue to gobble up super cheap milo stranded on vessels that were headed to China.

Bloomberg Trader Bias:  Bullish: 81% TW (53% LW); Bearish: 6% (32%); Neutral: 13% (15%)

 

BEANS              

UP 17

Pressure is building!  Can Argentina supply enough beans satisfy China’s demand for protein and have enough to crush?  They MAY need to import some US beans and then export meal.  Export Meal business is begining to come out of the woodwork since China has tariff on beans….but NOT meal.  Argentina’s crush plants ARE closer to export ports than Brazil’s.  The China and N Korea issues appear to be connected.  Kim needs to keep China happy.  The BA Exchange is reporting better harvest progress now to 54% complete and ests their crop still at 38 MMT.  Good weather now until next Thurs.  US planting on Mon is expected to be around 6-7%, vs 5% average.

 

 Bloomberg Trader Bias:  Bullish: 31% TW (32% LW), Bearish 38% (42% LW), Neutral 31% (26% LW)

 

WHEAT

UP  14

There appears to be concern over the condition of winter wheat and SHOULD see better planting progress expected on Mon for Spring wheat, like at 8%, up from 3% last week and compares to 30% last year, and 36% average.  France’s soft wheat is currently rated at 77% G/E, down just one from last week.

Bloomberg Trader Bias:  Bullish 40% TW (39% LW), Bearish 13% (17% LW), Neutral 47% (44% LW)