COMMENTARY 4/27/16

 

 

“The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent” –  John Maynard Keynes

Significant rainfall affects much of the N Plains, Corn Belt and Delta into Thursday, but bypasses HRW wheat areas from W Kansas and S.  Another big system comes through over the weekend, bringing more heavy rain to the S Plains, Corn Belt, and Delta.  After that we turn unseasonably cool with highs in the 50 – 60’s.  The NWS forecast shows 70% of ycorn and ysb areas could receive at least 2.00” of rain in the next 7 days!

St Louis river level ~RISING ~ at 14.1′ and forecast 21.0′ by 5/2.  

CORN

OLD DOWN 2      NEW DOWN 4

Ideas of additional planting progress ahead of forecasted rain spurred some long liquidation. So far, the rains were not as heavy/widespread across the Corn Belt, which is leading to thoughts of additional planting progress possible.  Thursday’s Export Sales report will be interesting to see if the recent price spike will result in a drop in sales, or will it take another week?

Monday’s

US PLANTING PROGRESS 30% THIS WEEK, 13% LAST WEEK, 16% LAST YEAR, and 16% AVG

IL PLANTING PROGRESS 42% THIS WEEK, 12% LAST WEEK, 26% LAST YEAR, and 25% AVG

 

BEANS     

OLD~ UP 1       NEW~ DOWN 6

Choppy and weak for most of the day. There was an export sales to Unknown totaling 350,000 MT for old-crop and 43,000 for 16/17 by the USDA this am.  More indications are coming in that the latter harvested beans in far S Brazil may be even lower than though due to excess rain.

 

WHEAT          

DOWN 4

Weaker with forecasts for beneficial rains, maintaining high yield potential.  There are also indications of high EU wheat potential.  US G/E ratings up 3 to 59% and compares to 42% last year.  Spring wheat planting  was at 42% this year vs 50% last year, but still above the five-year average of 28%. N Dakota is at 26% compared to 36% in 15′ and an average of 18%.