COMMENTARY 4/25/18

Quick-ship premiums beginning to show up at some houses as shippers show interest this week and next, as they try to lure corn into the pipeline during planting season.

UP 5

Cool wet planting conditions, strong global demand, and additional dryness in Brazil is looking more likely. If dry weather continues, we could see world stocks tighten as it sets the stage for US exports to increase this summer and into 18/19. Better chances for US rain mid NEXT week aren’t making anyone feel better about planting progress, but we’ll see what we CAN get done between now and Monday. Three more cargoes of US milo originally slated to China were reportedly resold to Saudi Arabia at a steep $75/ton discount.  Tomorrow’s Export Sales are expected to be 31 – 47 mill bu with only 14.2 needed from here on out (per week).

 

Monday’s Planting Progress:

US YC PLANTED:   5% TW,  3% LW, 15% LY, and 14% AVG

IL YC PLANTED:   4% TW,  0% LW, 30% LY, and 20% AVG

BEANS              

UP 5

Woo-ee!!  A vessel in Argentina’s Plate River damaged a Dreyfus meal loading facility and is shut down.  Some 20% of Argentina’s meal exports at risk fpr the next month + as damages to a loading gantry are repaired. This one facility accounts for 6 – 7  MMT of Argentina’s 31.3 MMT meal exports last year! Meal futures have responded with the nearby contract month shooting up $6/ton. China may have reportedly cancelled another 2 bean cargos of US beans and is increasing its buying of beans from Brazil and Canada.  Buying these beans elsewhere is NOT cheap for China.   CIF values of Brazil beans into China cost $467/MT, compared to US beans at $435.  That’s a $32/ton higher.  Normal differential in around $10/ton.  Tomorrow’s Export Sales are expected to be 15-26 mill bu with only four needed per week.

Mon’s Planting Progress:

US YC PLANTED:   2% TW,  0% LW, 5% LY, and 2% AVG

IL YC PLANTED:   0% TW,  0% LW, 3% LY, and 1% AVG

 

WHEAT

UP 14

Another firm day led by wheat!  Funds were significant buyers!  Weather in the US the likely culprit with challenges with the HRW crop, planting delays in the HRS region (though improving), dryness in Australia,parts of the EU, and Russia.   Talk to of freeze damage in cool spots seems to be taking the spotlight more than droughty conditions.  Thursday’s Export Sales are expected to be negative 4 to +7 mill bu with 13.5 needed per week.

 

Mon’s Planting Progress:

US WINTER WHEAT CONDITIONS:   31% TW,  31% LW, and 54% LY

IL WINTER WHEAT CONDITIONS:    56% TW,  54% LW, and 74% LY

US WINTER WHEAT HEADED:     13% TW,  9% LW, 30% LY, and 19% AVG

IL WINTER WHEAT HEADED:    4% TW,  3% LW, 24% LY, and 6% AVG

US SPRING WHEAT PLANTED:   3% TW, 3% LW, 21% LY, and 25% AVG