COMMENTARY 4/25/17

We missed the weekend forecast.  Next good chance of rain is tomorrow through Sun with some forecasts calling for total accum of 4-7 “.

 St Louis river level STEADY~ at 21.0′ and forecast 21.6 by 4/27.  (Action Stage is 28.0′) (Minor flood stage is 30.0′)

CORN

UP 6

Fund buying?  Did the significantly wetter forecast put a damper on our slightly behind planting?  We’re at 17%, just 1 point behind the 5 year avg and 2 above avg but way behind 28% in 2016.  Our percent emerged is 4% nationwide, right in line with the 5 yr.  Cordonnier est our acreage to be 90.5 mill acres, slighty larger than last year, but cool, wet, and replanting COULD increase bean acres.  In SA, Safras est Brazil’s summer harvest is 83% complete, That is 7 behind this time last year.  SA producers are still holding tight, not selling.

BEANS

DOWN 7

Cool, wet weather that is not ideal for yc planting could increase the chance for more ysb acres.  Cordonnier thinks 91.5 and vs the USDA at  89.5 mill is not out of the question.  Planting was 6% complete on Mon, nationwide, but on pace with our 5 yr avg.  Safra has Brazil harvest at 93% complete, up from 87% last week.

 

WHEAT

UP 6

It’s gettin’ chilly, causing planting delays in the spring wheat areas.  Spring wheat is only 22% planted vs 13% last week, 40% last year, and a 5 yr avg of 34%.  Our winter wheat is rated 54% Good/Excellent, up one from last week and and five lower than last year.