COMMENTARY 4/25/16

“The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent” –  John Maynard Keynes

St Louis river level ~EASING @  ~ at 12.4′ and forecast 12.1′ by 4/29.  

CORN

UP 5

The Funds were back!  It is still dry in N Brazil’s safrinha area but temps have cooled some. Cordonnier lowered his est of Brazil’s total production to 79mmt(-3) and a worst case at 75mmt. It is est that some 36% of safrinha crop is pollinating right mow. Here in the US, great weather has allowed active planting with 30% done with some heavy rain in the forecast for the next 5 days which could limit planting activities (mainly in the N).

 

US PLANTING PROGRESS 30% THIS WEEK, 13% LAST WEEK, 16% LAST YEAR, and 16% AVG

IL PLANTING PROGRESS 42% THIS WEEK, 12% LAST WEEK, 26% LAST YEAR, and 25% AVG

 

BEANS     

OLD~ UP 13       NEW~ UP 15

Imaginations continue to be wild on crop issues in SA.  While Arg gets a break in rain, more is in the long range 8 – 15 day forecast. Producers there are afraid to sell much if they perceive quality issues.  Interesting that producers were not heavy sellers of old crop up 30 cents. Planting progress came in at 3% This Week vs 2% last week, and 2% avg. Ten days of rain could spur more talk of acreage switch, but even if we are out of the fields for a week, wouldn’t expect much acreage to be switched due to the large scale of planters and the ability to knock acres out FAST!

WHEAT          

UP 4

Followed C and B.  Monday’s Inspections were 14.9mbu, which while in the range of expectations, trailed last week by almost 2 mill bu and the BOY requirements by almost 8 mill bu.