– Ask how you can help keep US Ag Exports competitive!  WE STRONGLY RECOMMEND that producers verify that their seed varieties ARE approved for MAJOR EXPORT MARKETS.  The STL River markets ARE planning to test loads delivered.  They RESERVE the right to reject loads with unapproved traits.  If you have seed that is NOT APPROVED FOR MAJOR EXPORT MARKETS, we encourage you to check with your seed representative to exchange for seed that IS APPROVED for GLOBAL USE.


China’s rejections of a banned variety of genetically modified U.S. corn have now cost the U.S. agriculture industry up to $2.9 billion, a grain group said, on losses from trade disruptions. The National Grain and Feed Association (NGFA) estimated in a report, that rejections of shipments containing Syngenta AG’s Agrisure Viptera corn resulted in losses of at least $1 billion.  This is based on economic analysis that included data supplied by top global grain exporters. The largest estimates of losses are based on the loss in corn price, which  translated to producer losses. – JSA



Ask your seed company what/how they are testing the NGMO purity on the seed you are going to plant.  Ensure what they are selling you IS pure (by lab testing your seed) BEFORE planting .  There are some contaminated seed issues out there.





St Louis river levels have evened out again at +14.7 ft today and forecast to be 15.1 by 4/29.

Fund buying early, then quiet.  We’ve had a few days conducive for field work nationwide, but the forecast from tonight into the weekend is now wetter. After this system moves through the weekend, temps are warmer in to the low 80’s with wind to help dry things back out and get the planters rolling again.  The larger of the Southern states are behind with KY 14%,TN 28%.  The five Southern states are 74% planted, 14% behind their 5 yr avg.  Next Monday’s report is expected to be in the low teens.  China is back in buying US milo….(there is no chance that it is genetically modified).  Export Sales report  was expecting 20 -31 million and got a 24.4.  China bought9.6.  Only needed 4 million per week from here on out.   Argentine corn harvest is 12% behind last year at 20% complete according to BA Exchange.    Despite all the turmoil in the Ukraine, Agroconsult has Ukraine planting at 8% complete, which is a five year record pace.  Canada is expected to plant 8% fewer acres this year.  MGR says today’s farmers can plant approx 50 acres/hour, depending on field size.

Ukraine’s troubles with Russia should help push corn demand to the US as they will be guaranteed the vessels will load and ship.    France’s parliament votes to BAN growing ALL VARIETIES of genetically modified corn.  Chinese weather watchers have their eye on possible El Nino conditions causing a cooler summer, which in the past has caused significant freeze damage to both corn and soybean crops.



OLD UP 3     NEW UP 3

Spread activity galore.  Immediate old crop supply concerns continue to dissipate as more South American vessels make their way to the US Coasts to be unloaded.  Imports are revealing just how tight the old crop really is and/or old beans were not high priced enough over the course of the season, to ration demand.  Export Sales were zero while expected to be -7 to -4 million, indicating that cancellations were expected, but the fact that the number wasn’t negative was rather positive.  China reported to be auctioning off 3 mmt of reserve bean stocks during the first week in May.  Letters of credit for soybean import are seeing increases of collateral from 10 to 30%

The “Brazillian Bean Armada” are headed for the US.  Eight to ten have already been diverted FROM China this week to other destinations.  Thirty-five  to forty more vessels are loaded/loading  and awaiting in Brazil waters looking for a home destination.   China’s Ministry  of Commerce is expecting 6.9mmt of bean imports into China, which is 3 mmt MORE than last year.  BA Exchange believes Argentina is 21% harvested, behind last year by 17%. Safras has Brazil harvest at 90%, 4% ahead of average.   Chinese hog prices are at a 4 year low.  This curtails soybean meal demand (see more details below).

Shangai JC indicates Chinese vessel defaults have grown now to as much as 23 vessels that have either been delayed or defaulted on – and counting due to Chinese defaults.  Chinese have now cancelled or defaulted on up to  2 MILLION mt of US and Brazilian beans.    This is the biggest default in 10 years.  From Reuters, a string of defaults on loans, bonds, and shadowy banking highlights the high credit risk of doing business with China and are likely fueled by their slowing economy.   Chinese crushers are rumored to be aggressive competition into the SE Asian meal market (wonder why they are selling meal?).   Also from China, via Reuters, Chinese officials believe that the severe issue of bird flu could lower their third quarter bean demand by 18% MORE than it did last year.  With the negative crush margins, Chinese bean crushers are losing between $80 – 100 per ton currently crushing beans for meal.



Up 12

Dry, dry, dry.  Still the same old story, dryness in the Southern Plains and HRW growing areas of Western OK and Southwestern Kansas. Keep an eye on the Black Sea region as turmoil heats up with Ukraine and Russia.  Export Sales were mid range at 12.5.   Unseasonal heavy rain is slowing movement of India wheat.  So far, there has been a 40% reduction at 6.7 mmt. The Governor hopes to buy 31mmt this year.  Monday’s Export Inspections were 18.2 million vs expectations of 18 -26 million combined.  Our winter wheat condition was the same as last week at 34% Good/Excellent and 35%last year.  France’s Good/Excellent wheat is holding steady at 75%, 9% better than last year.  The Ukraine has shipped 10 mbu of wheat, totaling 8.2 million.  The USDA is expecting 9.5 million.