COMMENTARY 4/2/18

With the passage of the omnibus spending bill, the 199A “Grain Glitch” was approved by Senate and signed by Pres Trump.  Producers can retroactively sell grain to private companies without a 20% reward to cooperatives.  THANKS for your support and positive attitudes as our elected officials sorted through the discourse!  

CORN

UNCHANGED

Cold, wet planting conditions caused some Fund buying.  Funds bought some 5k contracts which supported. Mon’s Export Inspections were hearty at the high end of the range at 53.1 vs expectations of 39 -55 mill bu with 57 needed per week.

Bloomberg Trade bias (pre-report):  Bullish 69% TW (44% LW), Bearish 6% (17%LW), Neutral 25% (39% LW)

 

BEANS              

DOWN 9

Higher early on post-Easter Argentine weather but Funds turned sellers.  Last weeks freight squeeze is STILL causing heartburn. Basis values are downright rotten and Cif values are not keeping up with the demand of freight.  More ysb’s were loaded out of the PNW than the Gulf last week.  That is a first.  Less concern over potential Chinese tariff reaction but they may stick with SA beans in the short-tun. Export Inspections were in the middle at 19.9 vs expectations of the 11-26  mill bu range.  Meal and Oil product sales made a good rebound from last week at 287K vs 148 but still below last year’s 430K and 212 needed per week.  NASS’s Crush est for Feb is 163.5 vs last year’s 152.1 and oil stocks are est 2.35 bill.

Bloomberg  Trade bias (pre-report):  Bullish 25% TW (18% LW), Bearish 50% (35%LW), Neutral 25% (47% LW)
 

Wheat

DOWN 5

Early gains were given back despite weather concerns.  We seem to still be chewing on last Thurs’ report.  The next 10 days or so is still relatively dry. Export Inspections were 13.3 vs expectations of 10 – 16 and 21.6 needed per week from here on out.  Winter Wheat Conditions are 32% G/E vs 51% last year.  OK is only 9% G/E, KS 10%, and SD 17%.  IL is 46%, MO 45% for comparison.

Bloomberg Trade Bias (pre-report):  Bullish, 25% TW (18% LW); Bearish, 18% (35%); Neutral, 56% (47%)