COMMENTARY 4/21/17

 Some time to plant followed by a good chance of rain approaches late next week with 1-2″ of accum possible for the W Corn Belt, leaving most of the E Corn Belt and Delta dry.

 St Louis river level STEADY~ at 21.9′ and forecast 21.9 by 4/26.  (Action Stage is 28.0′) (Minor flood stage is 30.0′)

CORN

DOWN 1

Into the red again as weather is giving the Cornbelt an opportunity to play catch up with the Delta and SE getting some rain in the next 5 days.  Planting delays are perceived as only temporary.  Analysts  are expecting 10-12% planted on Mon, vs 28% last year and 18% average.  The corn belt’s forecast should allow for some decent planting this weekend.  Funds are long 289k contracts.

 

BEANS

UP 4

We finally found support from continued strong export demand. The USDA announced another sale of 146K MT of old crop to unknown. Brazil farmers are still being non-sellers with the last third of their beans crop as they wait for better perceived prices.  Estimates on planting progress should be on the chart at 3%.

 

WHEAT

DOWN 1

Mixed today.  Funds are at or near record short, but finding something to excite them into buying is a trick.