COMMENTARY 4/20/17

Dry until late week here, with some decent accums for some Central and S areas Fri/Sat with up to 2 -4″. Next week is expected to be rather stormy and cool, resulting in more rather mixed planting conditions.

St Louis river level STEADY~ at 21.6′ and forecast 21.9 by 4/24.  (Action Stage is 28.0′) (Minor flood stage is 30.0′)

CORN

DOWN 4

Appears that there is SOME rapid planting going on in the E belt with a slightly drier planting forecast and spillover pressure from wheat. Today’s Export Sales came in at 29.8 mill vs expectations of 28 -39. Ethanol margins appear better due to the lower cbot board and expectations of a big drop in stocks. Lots of uncertainty left with weather and the funds are still big short.  Now THIS is a good time to buy a call!

BEANS

DOWN 4

Firmer overnight but export sales disappointed.  Dismal exports of  only 7.8 mill vs expectations of 11 -18!  However, our US beans are still as much/or more competitive to China for July and August.  Cif was firmer, freight weaker, and the SA farmer is still being patient on selling their big crop.

WHEAT

DOWN 13

Funds were sellers today! Export Sales were were 15.2 mill vs expectations of 9 -17. EU wheat was weaker today too despite concerns there over dry weather. The US drought conditions have gone from 26% droughty to just 3% in the last month.  KS farmers are spraying for rust and the Black Sea region could still have some cold temps, but everyday that goes by gets a little warmer.