COMMENTARY 4/20/16

The heat wave SHOULD be next week in Brazil, but significant rain is expected to be limited to the southern 30% of winter corn Mon/Wed.  Widespread rain is unlikely for the next two weeks as the drought becomes focused on Goias.  Argentina’s beans are in the wettest since before 1980 (Speedwell Index), but this pattern too should break early next week. No big changes expected for the US.  We should receive pockets of rain across the Corn Belt, Delta, and Plains through Fri, then followed by several days of dry, mild weather.  An unsettled pattern is possible to begin NEXT Sun/Tue and continue into May which  could turn some of our HRW areas too wet, causing mixed to poor planting conditions to develop with time. 

St Louis river level ~EASING @  ~ at 13.7′ and forecast 12.5′ by 4/25.

 CORN

UP 10

Hot/dry for Brazil’s  winter crop caused more commercial and technical buying, lifting the market higher.  Brazil is going to allow up to 1 MMT of duty free (no more 8-10% tariff) non-Mercosur corn for at least 6 months and more old crop corn demand.  The USDA says 136 K MT sold to Unknown!   Deral, Parana’s rural economy agency reduced their summer crop from 80% Good last week, to 70% this week and their; winter crop fell from 93% Good to 90%.  Thursday’s Export Sales are expected to be 35 – 47 mill bu.

Monday’s

US PLANTING PROGRESS

13% THIS WEEK, 4% LAST WEEK, 7% LAST YEAR, and 8% AVG

IL PLANTING PROGRESS

12% THIS WEEK, 2% LAST WEEK, 11% LAST YEAR, and 14% AVG

 

BEANS     

UP 24

Argentine worries continue with focus now on Uruguay, which is REALLY dripping wet.  Some 95% of the Uruguayan harvest is yet to be completed and it is est that 2-3 MMT of the Argentine crop may now be lost with up to 1 million hectares that won’t be harvested.  This draws attention to potential impact on the world meal supply chain between now and Sep.  There may be more meal demand coming back to the US.  Thursday’s Export Sales are expected to be 7 – 18 mill bu.

 

WHEAT          

UP 10

More support from the row crops!  Now the fear is that there may be too much rain in the Plains.  KS should get even more rain next week.  India remains dry and Europe is still too cool.  Thursday’s Export Sales are expected to be 0 – 11 mill bu.