COMMENTARY 4/19/16

E Argentina was pounded with heavy rain last night and more expected this week, THEN drier.  And…. 3/26 – 4/30 is likely to be drier to much-drier than normal for Brazil’s winter corn belt (some 2.00” – 8.00” less rain accum than last year). 

No changes expected for the US with pockets of rain affect varying areas of the Corn Belt, Delta, and Plains through Fri, then followed by several days of dry, mild weather.  An unsettled pattern is possible to begin NEXT Sun-Tue and continue into May which  could turn some of our HRW areas too wet, causing mixed to poor planting conditions to develop with time. 

St Louis river level ~EASING @  ~ at 14.4′ and forecast 13.8′ by 4/24.

 CORN

UP 3

Smaller Brazil estimates circulate but the market did come off its highs, basis was a bit weaker nearby.  Brazilian farmers back off on corn sales over Safrinha hot/dry, impeachment issues, and Cordonnier trimmed his crop est 1 MMT to 82.0 vs the USDA at 84.0.  The USDA announced 66 K MT export sale for 15/16 delivery and a 176 K sale for 16/17, compliments of Brazil’s dryness.  13% of the US  crop is planted and it is being said that the Trade is disappointed that it wasn’t closer to 15% complete.

Monday’s

US PLANTING PROGRESS

13% THIS WEEK, 4% LAST WEEK, 7% LAST YEAR, and 8% AVG

IL PLANTING PROGRESS

12% THIS WEEK, 2% LAST WEEK, 11% LAST YEAR, and 14% AVG

 

BEANS     

UP 31

Another very strong day as worries of a smaller SA crop triggered technical buying for old/new crop and coupled with a huge old/new crop Meal sale. Finally, some US Meal is in demand!! The USDA announced 55 K sale for 15/16 and a 50 K sale for 16/17!  Some wire services are talking about a potential range reduction for the Argentine bean crop from 3 to as much 10 MMT .  (that could be as much as 15% according to MDA)

 

WHEAT          

UP 13

 Carryover from yc and ysb, rains in the Plains.  Too much is now possible in some places yet disappointing in others.  KS should get even more rain next week.  India remains dry and Europe is still too cool.