COMMENTARY 4/18/17

St Louis river level RISING~ at 20.8′ and forecast 22.5 by 4/20.  (Action Stage is 28.0′) (Minor flood stage is 30.0′)

CORN

DOWN 5

Forecasts locally appear dryer, cooler, and instead of 60% chance Wed-Sat they’ve dropped to 20%, which may allow fieldwork to progress. It IS still early, but that doesn’t mean the market can’t fret about it.  A tariff on US yc etoh by Brazil is at the forefront.  The cash market has taken escalated purchasing time tables and fixing vessels that can allow a top off for Brazil tanks before a policy can be put in place. EIA numbers are projected to show a drop in production especially as we get into spring.

BEANS

DOWN 7

Fund selling, drier weather, and carryover from yest’s bearish NOPA report.  Funds were sellers of 8,000 bean contracts as well as 5,000 contracts of meal.  The reluctance of selling by the Brazil farmer is helping to keep export values for US beans competitive.

 

WHEAT

UP 1

Stripe rust being monitored in KS but doesn’t appear to be a market mover yet. Yesterday’s Weekly Crop Ratings increased one to 54% G/E and vs 53% last week and 57% last year.   Some 19%  is headed vs average and spring wheat planting is est at 13%, up from 5% last week and a 5 year avg of 21%.