COMMENTARY 4/18/16

 

The heat wave is slated to ends in 7 to 10 days for Brazil by Apr 25 and rains gradually end for Argentina.  Hot and dry weather affects Brazil through at least Sunday, followed by t-storms south next Mon.  In the US, pockets of rain/storms are forecast to spread from the E Plains through the Corn Belt and Delta through the end of this week.

St Louis river level ~EASING @  ~ at 15.3′ and forecast 12.3′ by 4/23.

 CORN

UP 2

Planting has started at an avg pace (see below).  The market is still trying to sort out the stocks situation in Brazil as we prepare to head into summer.  Export Inspections were strong at 42.9 and just missed the top end of the 33-43 mill bu range. There was a good showing to W Hemisphere of 16.1, Japan 11.5, Mexico 10.1.  South Africa took 1.5 mbu of white corn. Some privates were only expecting 32-35 mill bu.

US PLANTING PROGRESS

13% THIS WEEK, 4% LAST WEEK, 7% LAST YEAR, and 8% AVG

IL PLANTING PROGRESS

12% THIS WEEK, 2% LAST WEEK, 11% LAST YEAR, and 14% AVG

 

BEANS     

DOWN 1

A two sided day.  Brazil harvest is winding down at 90% complete, just 1% behind last year.  Argentina’s outlook is a bit drier and Exports were mid range at 9.4 vs expectations of 6 – 14 with 8 per week needed.  No beans went to the EU and just a few went to China.  Africa took 1.6, Asia 3.9, and Mexico 1.2 mill bu.

 

WHEAT          

UP 13

Higher and seemed technically driven.  Monday’s Inspections were at 4 month high at 16.8 which exceeded the 9-14 trade range but fell short of the implied rate which is now 21.3/week.  US winter wheat conditions are 57% G/E vs 56% last week, and 42% G/E last year.  The State of IL is 66% G/E.